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Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain and derivatives markets exhibit reduced volatility and a constricted supply while achieving new all-time highs, according to Glassnode.
A report from July 10 revealed that the Accumulation Trend Score has indicated consistent investor purchasing since June, with the price remaining within a limited range. This report was released just hours before Bitcoin surged into price discovery above $112,000.
At the time of publication, it was trading at $116,000 after reaching a new all-time high of $117,500.
Long-term holders are continuing to increase their balances, with supply growth surpassing miner issuance. This trend reflects a tendency to retain coins until a definitive price movement occurs.
Entities holding less than 100 BTC have accumulated 19,300 BTC monthly, outpacing the 13,400 BTC monthly issuance, thus absorbing new supply into long-term holdings.
Realized volatility across 1-week to 6-month periods is approaching the lowest levels observed since December 2022. Only 6% of trading days since then have experienced a tighter 30-day price range, while merely 0.4% have shown a narrower 60-day range.
This multi-scale compression suggests that volatility has diminished, creating a coiled structure where minor demand shifts can lead to significant price changes.
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At-the-money implied volatility in options markets has decreased across all timeframes, with percentile ranks in the lowest decile since late 2022.
Derivatives and ETF flows
Options markets are not anticipating high volatility, a situation that has historically preceded directional price movements when liquidity is low.
Glassnode’s Realized Supply Density metric indicated that 19% of the supply is situated within a 10% band around the current price. Small price fluctuations can greatly affect unrealized profitability for a substantial portion of holders, thereby heightening the potential for reactive trading once the price breaks out.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US currently hold a record $137 billion in assets under management (AUM), accounting for 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
While net inflows decreased to $144 million last week, consistent demand has shifted supply into regulated investment products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now comprises 55% of total ETF AUM and dominates ETF options open interest, with its cost basis closely aligning with broader market positioning models.
The report concluded that Bitcoin’s all-time highs occur within a context of low realized volatility, tight liquidity, and significant on-chain accumulation, establishing conditions where volatility builds quietly across markets while prices remain near record levels.
The post Bitcoin climbs to $117k as volatility spikes across markets after compression appeared first on CryptoSlate.
