The surge of cryptocurrency IPOs faces a significant challenge: Bitcoin continues to dominate.

Following the significant listings by Circle and Bullish in 2025, cryptocurrency exchanges hurried to enter public markets with a familiar assertion: the sector has finally matured enough for Wall Street. However, recent findings from Kaiko indicate that the situation is more complex than it appears.

The anticipated wave of crypto exchange IPOs was intended to demonstrate that the cryptocurrency sector had evolved from a speculative boom to a legitimate financial framework. These firms engaged Wall Street bankers, appointed compliance officers, and refined their presentations to highlight regulated platforms, consistent institutional inflows, and revenue streams diverse enough to withstand a bear market.

Nevertheless, Kaiko’s analysis revealed that trading activity on exchanges, investor interest, and public market valuations remain closely linked to Bitcoin’s price in ways that many exchanges attempt to downplay.

When Bitcoin experiences a rally, trading volumes increase, we observe a rise in listings, and Wall Street rewards the sector generously. Conversely, when Bitcoin stagnates or declines, revenue expectations for exchanges quickly diminish, and the narrative of infrastructure loses traction.

The key question for anyone investing in crypto IPOs in 2026 is whether these exchanges can produce sustainable earnings when Bitcoin is not performing favorably.

The year the IPO window reopened

To grasp why exchanges are eager to go public at this moment, it is helpful to consider how promising 2025 appeared from a broader perspective.

Circle set an increased IPO price at $31 per share in June 2025, raising $1.05 billion and valuing the stablecoin issuer at approximately $8 billion on a fully diluted basis. Its shares soared upon their debut on the NYSE, and the positive reception sent a clear message: institutional investors were interested in regulated crypto exposure and were not overly concerned with valuation.

Bullish followed suit in August, pricing above the expected range at $37 per share, raising over $1.1 billion, and debuting with a total valuation of nearly $13.2 billion. Bankers had a compelling narrative to present: regulation was improving, institutional involvement was increasing, and crypto firms were no longer the fringe startups that characterized the previous cycle.

The excitement was genuine, and the figures supporting it were substantial. However, what the boom obscured was a fundamental question that IPO markets typically postpone until earnings season makes it unavoidable: can an exchange maintain its revenue when the primary asset driving its trading activity becomes inactive?

Gemini provided an answer to that question, and it turned out to be quite unsettling.

In September 2025, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss raised Gemini’s IPO price range and aimed for a valuation of up to $3.08 billion, reflecting authentic investor interest during the crypto surge. By early 2026, a shareholder lawsuit emerged, claiming that investors were misled during the IPO period: the company had announced a 25% workforce reduction, market exits, and a forecasted significant annual loss, with the stock plummeting over 75% from its $28 IPO price.

As reported by CryptoSlate at the time of the filing, Gemini had already revealed a net loss of $282.5 million in the first half of 2025 alone. This highlighted how swiftly a company can transition from an oversubscribed listing to a casualty of the Bitcoin cycle when sentiment shifts.

The dynamics behind that shift are important to understand, as they apply to every exchange currently in the pipeline. Crypto exchanges generate the vast majority of their revenue when trading occurs, and Bitcoin continues to influence the conditions that drive trading activity. A Bitcoin rally sparks retail enthusiasm, institutional repositioning, altcoin speculation, and heightened volatility across the entire asset class, all of which directly translate into exchange fee income.

When Bitcoin stagnates, volumes decline across the industry, and the fee income that justified elevated valuations begins to appear significantly diminished. The public-market narrative presents exchanges as neutral infrastructures collecting fees regardless of market direction, but the operational reality is that many still rely on the most emotionally driven asset in finance to attract users.

Bitcoin as the underwriter

Kraken’s IPO timeline serves as another pertinent example.

In November 2025, the exchange had confidentially filed for a US listing and was aiming for Q1 2026, having recently been valued at $20 billion following a capital raise involving Jane Street and Citadel Securities. CryptoSlate’s report characterized the company as having matured into a disciplined financial institution, and the Q3 2025 figures supported that characterization: $648 million in revenue, $178.6 million in adjusted EBITDA, and platform transaction volume of $576.8 billion. All of these were record numbers, achieved during a period of heightened Bitcoin activity and favorable crypto sentiment.

However, by March 2026, Reuters reported that Kraken had paused its IPO plans, with sources suggesting the company might reconsider a listing when market conditions improve. Kraken’s postponement turns the entire IPO wave into a referendum on whether the window remains open on its own terms or whether Bitcoin’s trajectory continues to be the determining factor.

The most significant analytical distinction introduced by the 2025 wave is the difference between Circle and a crypto exchange, as Wall Street may ultimately value them quite differently.

Circle’s operations are linked to stablecoin circulation, interest income from the reserves backing USDC, and payment infrastructure, all revenue streams that are largely independent of high trading volumes or Bitcoin-driven volatility.

Exchanges, on the other hand, are structurally different, with earnings that fluctuate with crypto market activity rather than against a fixed yield. Infrastructure firms like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange command premium multiples precisely because their earnings remain stable across market cycles.

Crypto exchanges are currently seeking similar treatment while operating businesses that falter when Bitcoin loses momentum. The next phase of public-market crypto listings may ultimately distinguish stablecoin infrastructure companies, which can credibly claim CME-like earnings characteristics, from exchange operators whose revenue profiles appear significantly more cyclical during downturns.

Public investors reassess stocks every trading day, and this presents a particular challenge for exchanges upon listing. Private capital can afford to endure a downturn; public shareholders typically do not. The exchanges that endure quarterly earnings scrutiny will be those that can showcase revenue genuinely diversified across derivatives, custody, institutional services, and staking rather than relying on spot trading volumes to sustain the business.

The crypto exchange IPO wave continues to gain traction, but it is no longer adequate for exchanges to assert they survived the last bear market. Public investors seek proof that they can generate earnings through the next one. Until such evidence is available in audited quarterly reports, Bitcoin remains the sector’s underwriter, market maker, and ultimate arbiter, regardless of Wall Street’s preferences.

The post The crypto IPO wave has one big problem: Bitcoin is still in charge appeared first on CryptoSlate.