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The fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price are becoming increasingly subdued, with the cryptocurrency now exhibiting lower volatility compared to Nvidia shares in 2025, a change that Bitwise attributes to a more mature and diversified investor demographic.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s volatility has dipped below that of Nvidia as institutional products expand its investor demographic, according to Bitwise.
- The emergence of spot ETFs and access to traditional markets is altering Bitcoin’s trading dynamics and mitigating sharp price fluctuations.
- Bitwise perceives the more stable price movements as a fundamental change and anticipates further institutional participation in 2026.
In a report published on Wednesday, Bitwise indicated that Bitcoin is expected to remain less volatile than Nvidia (NVDA) through 2026, highlighting a long-term reduction in Bitcoin’s price variability over the last decade.
Bitwise Indicates Institutional Adoption Is Reducing Bitcoin’s Risk
The asset management firm contended that Bitcoin’s increasing integration into traditional financial markets is transforming its trading behavior.
“Bitcoin’s volatility has consistently decreased over the past decade,” Bitwise stated, noting that this trend reflects a broader “derisking” of the asset as institutional investors gain access through regulated products like spot exchange-traded funds.
Bitwise reported that the growth of ETFs and other conventional investment vehicles has broadened Bitcoin’s investor base beyond just retail traders and crypto-focused funds.
This diversification, the firm noted, has contributed to the reduction of sharp price movements that previously characterized the asset.
The data reveals a significant contrast between Bitcoin and Nvidia this year. Bitcoin has fluctuated 68% between its 2025 low of approximately $75,000 in April and its all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October.
In contrast, Nvidia has experienced a much larger 120% fluctuation, climbing from a low near $94 in early April to a peak of $207 later in the year.
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In 2026…
… $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL will establish new all-time highs, bets on @Polymarket will increase significantly, crypto equities will surpass tech stocks, and 7 other crypto forecasts for 2026 by the @BitwiseInvest Research Team.
Please note: As with all predictions, these are…— Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) December 17, 2025
Despite Nvidia’s heightened volatility, the chipmaker’s shares have yielded stronger returns.
Nvidia has risen approximately 27% year-to-date, while Bitcoin has declined about 8% since the beginning of the year as cryptocurrency markets have increasingly diverged from equities.
Bitwise interprets the more stable price movements as a fundamental change rather than a fleeting phase. The firm indicated that traditional market forces that previously drove extreme crypto cycles, such as speculation fueled by leverage and sharp responses to halving events, are diminishing in influence.
Looking forward, Bitwise expressed a positive outlook on Bitcoin’s future. The firm anticipates Bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high and move away from the historical four-year cycle that has influenced past bull and bear markets.
It also forecasts increased institutional engagement in 2026, identifying banks such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch as potential new entrants.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Selling May Be Approaching Its Conclusion: K33
Bitcoin has experienced ongoing sell-side pressure from long-term holders since 2024, but that trend may be nearing its limit, according to a recent report from research and brokerage firm K33.
The firm estimates that approximately 1.6 million BTC, valued at around $138 billion, has re-entered circulation over the past two years as early investors realized profits.
K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, stated that the magnitude of these transactions suggests intentional selling rather than technical factors such as wallet consolidation or ETF-related transfers.
The report highlights that 2024 and 2025 rank among the largest years on record for the reactivation of long-term supply, driven not by speculation but by direct selling into deeper institutional liquidity.
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