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Unusually accurate weather prediction for Paris on Polymarket yields $37,000., 2026/04/23 13:18:26
The French meteorological agency Météo France has reported two accounts on the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket to the gendarmerie. These accounts earned $37,000 by accurately predicting the rise in air temperature in Paris, as recorded by the weather station at Charles de Gaulle Airport.
On April 6, the temperature at the airport weather station exceeded the unusual April threshold of 21 degrees Celsius before dropping sharply. This event resulted in a payout of over $16,000 for the winner on the Polymarket prediction market. Analysts from Bubblemaps discovered that the successful trader’s account has been active for less than 30 days.
A similar temperature anomaly recorded on April 15 yielded another account more than $21,000. For most of the day, the temperature remained at 18 degrees, then suddenly surged to 22 degrees before falling again. The trader profited by betting against the 18-degree mark shortly before the spike, with the account purchasing “NO” tokens for the 18-degree forecast en masse and exiting the trade immediately after the increase.
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Meteorologist Ruben Hallali stated in an interview with the French channel BFMTV that such fluctuations are unlikely to occur naturally. He suggested that someone might have interfered with the sensors on-site.
“Such temperature changes seem extremely improbable, especially over these two days and within such a short timeframe. It is plausible that an individual with a good understanding of how the sensors operate intervened to raise the temperature by two degrees at the right moment to secure a winning bet,” the scientist explained.
An anonymous user on social media X speculated that someone might have used a common household hairdryer to alter the readings of the weather station’s sensors.
A group of unidentified traders on Polymarket has been making and winning bets on military-political events for the past two years, utilizing several accounts—both newly created and older ones, as previously uncovered by Bubblemaps. They have earned over $1.8 million on bets regarding the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
The administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump soon prohibited White House staff from placing bets on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, labeling it as an abuse of power.
