Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoreNews is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoreNews on whether to sell, buy or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk.
CryptoreNews covers fintech, blockchain and Bitcoin bringing you the latest crypto news and analyses on the future of money.
The current Bitcoin market cycle, which commenced following the 2024 halving, has proven to be considerably weaker than the three preceding cycles, according to Alex Thorn, head of research at investment firm Galaxy.
He compared the price movements after the halving in April 2024 with those of the cycles that began in 2012, 2016, and 2020. His assessment indicates a decline in volatility and a reduction in growth potential.
In the 2012 cycle, Bitcoin’s price surged approximately 9294%, reaching $1163. In 2016, the increase was around 2950%, peaking at about $19,891. During the 2020 cycle, the price rose by 761%. In the current cycle, the peak recorded on October 5, 2025, at $125,000, was only 97% higher than the price at the time of the 2024 halving.
Thorn suggested that this trend may persist into the next cycle, which is expected to begin in 2028 after the subsequent halving.
Related Posts
Data from the Bitcoin volatility index over the past 30 days indicates that the halving is having a diminishing impact on Bitcoin’s price, yielding to other influencing factors. In April 2020, the index reached 9.64%, while in the current cycle, it has not exceeded 3.11%—the last time this value was recorded was on August 24, 2024. According to Bitbo, the current index stands at 1.75%.
As per Fidelity Digital Assets, the decrease in volatility has resulted in less severe price drops for Bitcoin. Analyst Zack Wainwright from Fidelity Digital Assets notes that in previous bear cycles, declines ranged from 80% to 90%. However, the drop in price from the historical peak to the minimum this year ($60,000) represents a decline of just over 50%.
Earlier, analysts from Santiment indicated that Bitcoin might test the $90,000 level in the coming weeks amid capital redistribution and a reduction in political tensions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, a cryptocurrency analyst known as Rekt Capital believes that the current rise in Bitcoin, driven by economic factors, may be short-lived and not lead to the establishment of a new bullish cycle.
