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Bitcoin (BTC) may reach a high of $290,000 in early 2026 if it mirrors the price movements observed during the 2017 bull market, as indicated in the latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report.
This forecast is grounded in past price behaviors during bullish phases, institutional engagement, and significant technical indicators.
After hitting a bear market low in November 2022, Bitcoin experienced a robust recovery with a 155.5% increase in 2023. This upward trend continued into 2024, with BTC trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for the majority of the year, achieving a 143% year-to-date increase.
The ongoing bull cycle commenced in mid-to-late 2023, supported by expectations surrounding Bitcoin’s halving event in 2024, which has historically been a precursor to a bullish year.
Moreover, the report credits the vigor of this cycle to institutional buying activity and the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which have created steady demand and curtailed the extent and duration of market corrections.
Cycle patterns
During the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin experienced its most significant correction of 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle recorded a 27.1% drawdown. In the current cycle, corrections have been more limited due to increasing institutional interest, which has further stabilized the market.
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A crucial instrument for forecasting Bitcoin’s price peaks, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, has historically identified cycle highs with notable precision. This indicator monitors the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
In previous cycles, when the 111DMA surpasses the 350DMAx2, Bitcoin has generally reached a significant price peak. The report noted that this crossover might happen as soon as June 29, 2025, if the 2021 cycle pattern is replicated, or as late as January 28, 2026, in a scenario resembling the extended cycle of 2017.
Price projections
Historically, Bitcoin has peaked well above its moving averages during bullish phases. In 2017, it traded at three times the value of its moving averages at its peak. However, as BTC matures, returns have become less pronounced, indicating more cautious price forecasts.
According to Bitfinex, if Bitcoin adheres to the trajectory of 2021, it could rise 40% above its moving averages, reaching a price of approximately $339,000.
Nonetheless, taking into account the reduced returns, Bitcoin might increase by 15% to 20% above its moving averages, positioning its peak in the $160,000 to $200,000 range by mid-2025. In contrast, if the 2017 cycle were to repeat, Bitcoin could potentially peak at around $290,000 by early 2026.
While historical indicators imply that the most probable scenario is a peak between $160,000 and $290,000, the journey to these heights will rely on market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic factors, according to the report.
The post Bitfinex projects Bitcoin peaking at $290k in early 2026 if historical patterns repeat appeared first on CryptoSlate.
