Onchain Accumulation Reaches Lowest Level in Six Years – Implications of Supply Squeeze for Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin’s exchange balances have significantly decreased, indicating a growing supply squeeze as long-term holders strengthen their grip on circulation. Since early October, over 45,000 BTC, valued at nearly $4.8 billion, has been withdrawn from centralized exchanges, suggesting that investors are transferring assets into cold storage instead of keeping them available for trading.

Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Sees Significant Decline

A reduced exchange balance typically signifies that fewer coins are accessible for sale, which diminishes immediate market supply. When this is coupled with stable or increasing demand, it creates conditions that may accelerate upward price movements. The recent trend of withdrawals reflects rising investor confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, despite recent fluctuations.

Chart: Bitcoin exchange balances have reached six-year lows, indicating heightened long-term accumulation. Source: Glassnode (2025).

Conversely, inflows to exchanges typically increase during periods of uncertainty when traders seek liquidity. Currently, the opposite is happening: outflows are rising even as prices remain low. This trend suggests that many market participants view the recent correction as an opportunity for accumulation rather than a risk event.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,417, reflecting a 1.34% increase over the past 24 hours, with a total market capitalization of $2.16 trillion. The circulating supply is at 19.93 million BTC, leaving fewer than 1.1 million coins to be mined before the network reaches its hard cap of 21 million.

Long-Term Holders Retain Control

On-chain data indicates that long-term investors remain active despite short-term uncertainties. According to Santiment, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at -7.56%, suggesting that recent buyers are experiencing minor unrealized losses.

Historically, negative MVRV values have signaled accumulation phases, where Bitcoin trades below its perceived fair value.

In past cycles, similar conditions preceded price recoveries as selling pressure diminished and confidence returned. Additionally, data reveals that leveraged positions are at multi-year lows, which lowers the risk of forced liquidations. With derivatives markets exhibiting more balanced sentiment, the environment is conducive to gradual accumulation and consolidation prior to a broader recovery phase.

BTC Price Analysis: Recovery Appears Possible

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook is becoming slightly bullish as it forms a symmetrical triangle pattern on the two-hour chart. This formation often indicates a potential breakout. The price is currently testing the 200-EMA resistance at $108,500, while maintaining higher lows since the $104,500 bottom on October 17.

The RSI has risen from 35 to 59, reflecting improving momentum without entering overbought territory.

A breakout above $110,850 could pave the way toward $113,500 and $115,960, which are key resistance levels within the previous descending channel. However, failing to maintain above $107,400 could lead to a pullback toward $104,550 or $102,000.

For traders, a long position above $108,800 with a stop below $107,400 offers a calculated opportunity targeting $113,500. If momentum continues, Bitcoin could approach $116,000 before the end of the year.

With exchange supply tightening and long-term holders accumulating, Bitcoin’s structural setup appears increasingly optimistic. As institutional demand rebuilds and macroeconomic pressures stabilize, the supply squeeze may create the conditions for the next significant price expansion.

Bitcoin Hyper: The Next Evolution of BTC on Solana?

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Audited by Consult, the project prioritizes trust and scalability as adoption increases. Momentum is already strong, with the presale exceeding $23.9 million, and tokens priced at just $0.013125 before the next increase.

As Bitcoin activity rises and the demand for efficient BTC-based applications grows, Bitcoin Hyper distinguishes itself as the bridge connecting two of crypto’s largest ecosystems.

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