Bitcoin Falls Below Critical Support Threshold Indicating the 2022 Bear Market, According to CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s momentum has significantly diminished this week, falling below a crucial support area that has historically indicated the shift from bullish to bearish markets.

After several months of maintaining a position above the six-figure mark, Bitcoin dropped below $100,000, raising concerns that a more substantial correction could occur if a price recovery does not happen soon.

As per CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, market sentiment has shifted to a highly bearish stance, reaching zero for the first time since June 2022—a level that previously aligned with the beginning of the last significant bear market.

Bitcoin is trading below its 365-day moving average ($102K), a vital technical and psychological support level that was last breached at the onset of the 2022 bear market.
If the price does not recover this level, data indicates that the next support is around $72K, the minimum realized price band for traders. pic.twitter.com/VySVce5NY9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2025

As macroeconomic conditions tighten and on-chain metrics weaken, traders are closely monitoring essential support levels to ascertain whether this decline is a brief correction or the start of a more extended downtrend.

Bitcoin Drops Below the 365-Day Moving Average

The most concerning technical development is Bitcoin’s decline beneath its 365-day moving average (MA), currently situated around $102,000. This long-term indicator has acted as a crucial line of defense throughout the current cycle, serving as both technical and psychological support.

Historically, when Bitcoin decisively fell below its 365-day MA—most notably from December 2021 to January 2022—it signaled the formal commencement of a bear market.

Unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims this level, analysts caution about a potential increase in selling pressure, with momentum traders and algorithms likely to exacerbate downside volatility.

On-chain Data Indicates Potential Decline Toward $72K

The Traders’ On-chain Realized Price Bands also suggest a heightened risk of further declines. These bands, which monitor average acquisition prices for short-term holders, show a lower band near $100K and a minimum band around $72K.

If Bitcoin remains below the $100K mark for an extended period, traders realizing losses could drive prices down toward that $72K support, representing a 28% drop from current levels.

Throughout this cycle, the lower band has functioned as a dynamic support, cushioning retracements as weaker hands capitulate. A breach below this range would signify a structural change in trader behavior, reflecting patterns last observed in 2022.

Network Valuation Support Around $91K

According to the network valuation model based on Metcalfe’s law—which posits that a network’s value increases proportionally to the square of its user base—Bitcoin’s next significant support is approximately $91,000, aligning with the 2x Metcalfe-Value band.

Bitcoin traded close to this valuation from November 2024 through May 2025, and a retest could temporarily stabilize the market if investor participation remains consistent.

With fundamentals deteriorating and confidence waning, Bitcoin is once again testing that “red thin line” between a severe correction and a renewed rally—mirroring the precarious dynamics that characterized the 2022 bear market.

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