Bitcoin regains $80,000 level amid increasing inflows, though traders remain cautious and skeptical about a significant rally.

Robust ETF inflows and increasing leverage are propelling prices upward, yet data from CryptoQuant indicates weak spot demand, with Polymarket odds estimating only a 23% likelihood of reaching $90,000 this month.

Key points:

• The ascent of Bitcoin towards $80,000 is primarily fueled by inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and leveraged long positions, rather than widespread spot buying.
• On-chain analytics reveal that the rally in April was predominantly driven by perpetual futures demand, while spot demand declined, a trend historically associated with fragile and potentially reversible gains.
• Prediction markets indicate a better-than-even likelihood of a slight increase to $85,000 but show low chances for a spike to $90,000, highlighting that the current advance lacks strong conviction and is susceptible to any decrease in inflows or changes in positioning.

Bitcoin is currently trading above $80,000 as Asia begins its trading week, a level not reached since late January.

According to analysts at CryptoQuant, BTC‘s resurgence to $80,000 is being driven by buyers who exhibit a degree of skepticism, a sentiment reflected in both positioning data and on-chain metrics.

ETF inflows and leveraged long positions have resulted in a consistent upward trend in recent weeks; however, the overall demand remains inconsistent. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $2.7 billion in the last three weeks, which has helped raise total net assets above $100 billion and offers a tangible source of real-money support.

Additionally, market maker FlowDesk noted last week via a Telegram message an increasing interest in expanding levered long positions, particularly in major cryptocurrencies like ether (ETH) and Near Protocol’s NEAR, reinforcing the notion that quick capital is playing a crucial role in driving prices higher.

Nevertheless, on-chain data implies that the rally is not being widely validated. A report from CryptoQuant released on April 30 indicated that bitcoin’s movement in April was driven “entirely by growth in perpetual futures demand,” while spot demand contracted throughout the rally.

This type of divergence, where leverage increases but underlying purchasing does not, has historically been linked to fragile price increases that often reverse once positioning unwinds.

Prediction markets convey a similar narrative. On Polymarket, traders are evaluating a 56% chance that bitcoin will reach $85,000 this month, but only a 23% likelihood of hitting $90,000, indicating that expectations are tilted toward a gradual rise rather than a breakout.

In summary, these indicators suggest a rally that is sustained by flows and leverage but lacks widespread conviction. While this does not eliminate the possibility of further upward movement, it does imply that the advance remains sensitive to any slowdown in inflows or changes in positioning, scenarios that have historically resulted in sharp reversals rather than enduring gains.