Bitcoin is approaching a threshold that limited its surge in January, according to CryptoQuant.

ETF inflows driven by macro factors have raised prices, yet CryptoQuant data indicates that significant holders are preparing to sell near a critical breakeven point

Key points:

• The rise of Bitcoin towards the mid-$70,000s is being fueled by consistent institutional and macro-driven ETF inflows rather than a spike in retail speculation.
• As prices approach approximately $76,800, on-chain metrics indicate a notable rise in deposits to exchanges from larger holders, implying that many are selling at or close to their breakeven prices.
• This situation creates a late-cycle transition where long-term holders are distributing coins into ETF demand, allowing Bitcoin to surge on inflows but also making it susceptible to a decline back to the low-$70,000s if selling pressure exceeds new buying interest.

The ascent of Bitcoin towards $75,000 faces a significant supply barrier even as institutional demand remains stable.

This upward movement has primarily been propelled by macro flows rather than a widespread increase in speculative trading. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have maintained a steady influx of funds this month, including around $240 million in a single session following geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, according to market maker Enflux.

This demand assisted in elevating BTC from about $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s, despite traditional markets grappling with rising oil prices and changing interest rate expectations. Enflux noted that this pattern reflects allocation behavior rather than pursuit of momentum.

However, as Bitcoin continues to rise, the market dynamics are beginning to shift.

On-chain data indicates that supply is starting to emerge more aggressively as prices near a significant cost-basis level for short-term holders. The level of around $76,800 represents the so-called realized price for recent purchasers, effectively marking the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last market downturn, according to CryptoQuant. In weaker market environments, this level has often served as resistance, as investors who were previously at a loss utilize rallies to exit at breakeven.

It is notable that this same range capped January’s rebound almost precisely before prices turned back towards $60,000.

CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin exchange inflows surged to approximately 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest rate since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range.

Concurrently, the average deposit size increased to around 2.25 BTC, the highest daily figure since mid-2024, suggesting that larger holders are influencing the movement. The proportion of large transactions rose from below 10% to over 40% of total inflows within days, a shift the firm stated has historically aligned with increased distribution pressure.

This creates a dual-sided market.

On one hand, ETF flows and macroeconomic tailwinds continue to offer a stable source of demand. On the other, substantial holders seem to be utilizing the rally to lessen their exposure, contributing liquidity to the market as prices approach a widely regarded breakeven zone.

The outcome is more of a transition than a standoff. Long-term holders appear to be distributing coins directly into ETF demand — the exchange inflows identified by CryptoQuant and the ETF inflows monitored by Enflux represent, in essence, two facets of the same transaction, observable in distinct datasets.

The success of this transition relies on whether the new holders prove to be more resilient than those exiting. This is a late-cycle phenomenon, resolving in one of two directions.

The result is a market capable of moving upward rapidly on inflows, yet finding it difficult to maintain those gains as supply accumulates. A sustained breakthrough above the mid-$70,000s would likely necessitate demand to absorb a growing influx of selling pressure. If this does not occur, the balance may shift the other way, as noted by CryptoQuant, leaving Bitcoin susceptible to a decline back towards the low-$70,000s, where the latest phase of the rally initiated.