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Pantera forecasts a 322% increase in Bitcoin’s value to $148,000 following the 2024 halving event.
Bitcoin has undergone its longest period of negative year-over-year returns in its history, lasting 15 months from February 2022 to June 2023.
This unprecedented decline surpasses the former record of nearly a year from November 2014 to October 2015.
A recent letter to investors from Pantera Capital suggests that this extended downturn may have reached its conclusion.
Pantera noted that a recent series of favorable developments, including the XRP ruling and support from BlackRock and other significant financial institutions, along with the forthcoming Bitcoin Halving anticipated in April 2024, could establish a robust basis for a forthcoming bull market for digital assets.
Bitcoin Halving 2024.
The Bitcoin Halving, scheduled for April 20, 2024, will reduce the issuance of Bitcoins by half next year.
Currently, the blockchain rewards miners with 6.25 bitcoins every ten minutes, and this “block reward” is halved every four years, a process expected to persist until 2140, when the total number of Bitcoins in circulation will reach the predetermined limit of 21 million coins.
The upcoming Halving will decrease the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Pantera referenced The Efficient Markets Theory, which posits that this planned event should already be incorporated into the current price. However, if the demand for new Bitcoin remains consistent while the supply is halved, the price could rise.
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Historically, demand for Bitcoin has surged in the lead-up to the Halving event in anticipation of a price increase. Pantera observed that Bitcoin has typically reached its lowest point 477 days prior to the Halving, increased in value leading up to it, and then experienced a notable surge afterward.
Bitcoin Halving price rally prediction.
On average, the rallies following halvings have lasted 480 days, from the Halving to the peak of the subsequent bull cycle. Based on these historical trends, Pantera’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin should have hit its lowest point on December 30, 2022.
However, the actual low occurred earlier, on November 9, 2022, during the FTX collapse. Pantera’s report forecasts a rally as early as 2024, followed by a significant increase after the Halving. The current Bitcoin price is exceeding Pantera’s estimate of $35,500/BTC at the Halving date, currently positioned 7% above that prediction.
The model employed by Pantera to evaluate the effects of Halvings examines variations in the stock-to-flow ratio across each event. The impact of each Halving on price is expected to lessen as the reduction in the supply of new Bitcoins diminishes.
If this trend continues, the next Halving, according to Pantera’s forecast, would see Bitcoin rising to $35,000 before the Halving and soaring to $148,000 afterward.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $26,461.42, reflecting a 1.79% increase in the last 24 hours but a 7.18% decline over the past week.
Despite these market variations, the upcoming Halving and its potential effects remain a crucial factor influencing Bitcoin’s market dynamics, according to Pantera’s analysis.
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