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Bitcoin’s (BTC) ascent to new all-time highs indicates potential for it to reach $130,000 before entering historical demand exhaustion zones, as outlined in a July 16 report by Glassnode.
Bitcoin has emerged from a multi-week range of $100,000 to $110,000, achieving a new peak around $122,000, surpassing dense cost-basis clusters where buyers had focused between $93,000 and $97,000 and $104,000 and $110,000.
Investors who established positions within these ranges now provide potential pullback support as price discovery continues above previous resistance, offering traders a reference point for downside evaluations should momentum diminish.
Positioning above significant cost bands
The report analyzed its Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap and identified concentrated acquisitions in the two lower zones that Bitcoin has recently surpassed. Clearing these supply levels typically transforms them into support, as previously underwater or flat-PnL holders become defenders of their entry costs.
Image: Glassnode
With the spot price now significantly above both clusters, desks monitoring downside absorption will observe whether bids reemerge if Bitcoin revisits the $104,000 to $110,000 range.
Profit saturation increases
The report also evaluated Glassnode’s Cost-Basis Distribution Quantiles, revealing a spot price above the 95th percentile level at $107,400. This positions the majority of the circulating supply in profit.
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Additionally, the report noted that sharp spikes above this percentile in previous cycles prompted increased profit-taking as a broader investor base realized gains, elevated aggregate cost bases, and formed more price-sensitive ownership structures.
This dynamic can result in top-heavy conditions when replicated on a larger scale.
Bitcoin climbed to $122,600 before retracing to $115,900 as investors took profits when the price extended more than one standard deviation above the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis.
Image: Glassnode
Historical analysis in the report suggests that STH+1 often acts as a tactical resistance zone during speculative periods.
The report identified the subsequent resistance at the STH+2 band near $136,000. Traders targeting a psychological $130,000 level consider it an intermediate milestone within that statistical range.
Demand exhaustion risk
Current short-term holder conditions are now in the early overheated zone. The report indicated that 95% of STH supply is in profit, exceeding one standard deviation above the long-term average of 88% and marking the third such occurrence since early May 2025.
It concluded that repeated forays into overheated profit realization territory have historically preceded broader market demand exhaustion.
The post Bitcoin rally shows room to run toward $130,000 before demand cools off appeared first on CryptoSlate.
