Senate Faces Three-Week Deadline to Approve the CLARITY Act: A Pivotal Period for Ripple XRP?

Ripple XRP is priced at $1.34 as of April 7 – an increase of 2.2% due to risk-on flows driven by a ceasefire, but the crucial price point in April will not be determined by macroeconomic sentiment: it will be influenced by the Senate Banking Committee.

The CLARITY Act, which aims to establish XRP’s designation as a digital commodity under the jurisdiction of the CFTC and remove the SEC’s primary oversight authority, is scheduled for a committee markup in the latter half of April.

Senator Bernie Moreno has publicly indicated that if the bill does not reach the full Senate by May, the dynamics of the midterm elections will likely push it off the agenda for the remainder of 2026. This makes the upcoming three weeks the most critical legislative period XRP has encountered this year.

Key Takeaways:

• Price level: XRP is trading at $1.34 as of April 6, down 63% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, with Q1 2026 marking its worst quarter in eight years.
• Legislative clock: The markup by the Senate Banking Committee is anticipated for late April; Senator Moreno has cautioned that failure to progress by May effectively terminates the bill for 2026.
• Bull case trigger: Approval from the Banking Committee could unlock an estimated $4–$8 billion in XRP ETF inflows according to Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, with a price target exceeding $1.60.
• Bear case floor: A delay beyond May, coupled with Bitcoin falling below $60,000, could put XRP at risk of declining toward $0.82, as per analysis from 24/7 Wall St.
• Passage odds: Kalshi had the odds of passage in 2026 at approximately 69% as of March 20; Polymarket currently ranges from 63–66%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty regarding DeFi provisions and scheduling.

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What the CLARITY Act Actually Does – and Why April Is the Only Window

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) was passed by the House with a bipartisan vote of 294–134 on July 17, 2025, assigning primary oversight of digital commodities to the CFTC while limiting the SEC’s jurisdiction over assets that meet the new criteria.

The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its version on January 29, 2026, but the Banking Committee – led by Tim Scott – has yet to conduct a markup, with unresolved issues regarding DeFi regulatory provisions and tokenization treatment delaying the process.

The Senate will reconvene from the Easter recess on April 13, and Scott’s committee has a targeted markup window in the last two weeks of April.

The stablecoin yield dispute that previously hindered negotiations seems to be nearing resolution: Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks reached a preliminary compromise on March 20 that prohibits passive yield on stablecoin balances but allows activity-based rewards linked to payments and platform usage.

BREAKING: Banks and crypto firms have privately reached an agreement regarding the Bitcoin market structure bill.
An announcement is anticipated this week.
The CLARITY Act has been stalled since January due to one dispute, concerning whether crypto platforms can offer yield on stablecoins.
That conflict… pic.twitter.com/YbCtOulJU3

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) April 6, 2026

Senator Cynthia Lummis confirmed at the Chamber of Digital Commerce Blockchain Summit that DeFi provisions are finalized, anticipating committee markup in late April followed by a floor vote in mid-2026.

The realistic assessment of the scheduling situation: Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn has noted that with only 18 working weeks remaining before the midterm recess on October 5, each week of delay reduces the time available for floor consideration to the extent that passage in 2026 becomes structurally unlikely without Banking Committee approval by the end of April.

The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17 – however, this classification is an interpretive release, not a statute.

A future administration could reverse this decision. Banks and large asset managers are unlikely to commit significant capital based solely on an administrative determination. The CLARITY Act would establish the commodity classification as permanent federal law, and this distinction is the fundamental mechanism behind the bullish outlook.

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Ripple XRP Might Hit $1.60-Plus If Clarity Clears

The entire Ripple XRP scenario hinges on one factor: the CLARITY Act. If it successfully passes through the Banking Committee in late April, that will be the catalyst that attracts substantial institutional investment, translating into actual capital flows rather than mere discussions, which is where projections of $4–$8 billion in ETF inflows become significant, especially given the strong demand already observed even without complete legal clarity, potentially pushing the price above $1.60 and higher.

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The crucial aspect that many overlook is that this situation is not merely about regulatory hype; it is about certainty. Currently, institutions can consider Ripple XRP but cannot fully commit, which is why even the SEC and CFTC classification did not create structural movement; it aids sentiment but does not unlock capital. In contrast, a law like CLARITY fundamentally alters the rules and facilitates deployment.

If that approval is postponed beyond May, the entire narrative weakens rapidly, as without it XRP would revert to tracking Bitcoin, and with BTC already moving sideways, this implies no strong independent movement. Should macroeconomic pressures resurface, the downside risk increases swiftly.

The timeline adjustments from Ripple itself are also indicative, with expectations already being pushed back, which typically suggests that matters may not be as smooth behind the scenes as they appear publicly.

Thus, everything currently focuses on that late April timeframe, because if the committee acts, momentum will build quickly; however, if it stalls, this could shift from a catalyst-driven breakout scenario into just another range with diminishing excitement.

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