Crypto analytics platform Santiment has warned that retail FOMO may arise if Bitcoin surpasses $92,000.
This caution comes as Bitcoin hovers around $90,000 in early 2026, with social sentiment experiencing its most robust bullish surge in six months, despite modest trading volumes following the holiday season.
Source: TradingView
Brian, the head of content at Santiment, remarked during a livestream on January 2nd that Bitcoin’s movement towards the psychological $90,000 level generally stimulates retail buying activity.
“Typically, when we observe a figure like 89.9K, there’s a noticeable retail push to reach that milestone,” he clarified, adding that such movements often precede heightened volatility as limit sell orders are triggered and FOMO escalates.
Conflicting Signals as New Year Trading Commences
Market data presents a complicated scenario as 2026 begins.
Bitcoin’s social volume remained stable, with only a 0.06% variance from the previous week, whereas Ethereum experienced a slight rise of 1%.
Mid-cap altcoins garnered increased interest, with discussions surrounding Dogecoin surging by 57% and Cardano rising by 19%, indicating a potential shift in retail focus toward smaller assets following what traders termed “the bloodbath that was the end of 2025.“
Source: X/@santimentfeed
Santiment’s ratio of positive to negative sentiment for Bitcoin nearly reached 2:1 on January 1st, marking the highest level since early October.
This indicates the most significant shift toward bullish sentiment in over six months, although analysts remain cautious about interpreting this increase.
“I’m not particularly concerned about a lot of FOMO occurring at this moment,” Brian commented, noting that the timing coincides with traders returning from holidays rather than a strong conviction.
The sentiment uptick appears to be specific to Bitcoin, with Ethereum and XRP reflecting more neutral sentiments.
References to “higher or above” outnumbered those mentioning “lower or below,” reinforcing the optimistic outlook among retail traders.
Nonetheless, historical trends indicate that extreme bullish sentiment often precedes corrections, as markets tend to move against crowd expectations.
Whale Accumulation Lays Bullish Groundwork
On-chain data reveals a more promising situation beneath the surface fluctuations.
Wallets containing 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin have accumulated around 65,500 BTC since November 30th, with 55,400 BTC added in just the last two weeks.
This marks the highest proportion of supply held by whales and sharks since November 10th.
Maxim Balashevich, founder and CEO of Santiment, suggested that the current price movements might reflect anticipation of MicroStrategy’s expected weekend purchases.
“There could be some players wagering on the Saylor,” he noted. “Perhaps this could prompt some retail to jump on the new year buying bandwagon.”
This accumulation trend contrasts with retail behavior, as smaller wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin continued to increase their positions amid the recent volatility.
This simultaneous buying activity from both whales and retail investors creates uncertainty, as historical patterns favor price rallies when large holders accumulate while smaller traders sell.
$BTC path into 2026 looks increasingly mixed
• $100K lost, no late-year rally
• ETFs see outflows, macro pressure grows
• Whales still accumulating on dips#Bitcoin #BTC #2026https://t.co/24wCTbRK7W— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) December 22, 2025
Volatile Conditions Anticipated Before Directional Shift
Santiment analysts predict sideways trading over the weekend until clearer signals materialize.
“We need to wait until Monday to gather more data,” Balashevich mentioned, noting that many U.S. traders remain on holiday until next week.
He foresees potential gains through Sunday, driven by speculation regarding institutional purchases, followed by either a downturn on Monday or continued consolidation, contingent upon broader market conditions.
The 30-day market-to-realized-value ratio hovers near breakeven, while the 365-day metric indicates long-term holders are down 11.5% from October’s all-time high of $126,000.
Network growth remained robust at the year’s end, although profit-taking surged to six-week highs on January 2nd as traders capitalized on the approach to $90,000.
Looking forward, Santiment stresses the importance of monitoring whether Bitcoin can exceed $92,000 without triggering excessive retail enthusiasm.
The platform’s data indicates that while whale accumulation offers bullish support, a FOMO-driven surge past critical resistance levels could create conditions for a sharper correction once speculative excitement peaks.
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