Polymarket Indicates 75% Probability of Bitcoin Falling Below $55K – Key Insights for Traders

Traders on the prediction market Polymarket are estimating a 75% likelihood that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall beneath $55,000, reflecting a significant 18% overnight increase in negative sentiment as the cryptocurrency struggles to maintain the $65,000 support level.

Source: Polymarket

This bearish sentiment is evident as Bitcoin fights to retain its position as the 14th largest asset in global market capitalization rankings.

Why Are Prediction Markets Indicating Bearish Sentiment?

The negative outlook follows a challenging weekend during which Bitcoin’s market capitalization dipped to $1.31 trillion, briefly placing it behind the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

Prices have decreased approximately 31% over the past year from peaks near $100,000, influenced by diminishing momentum following the halving event.

Recent statistics reveal that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has experienced a 45% decline. Since reaching a high of $4.3 trillion on October 5, 2025, the crypto market has lost nearly $2 trillion, now totaling a combined market cap of $2.35 trillion.

Institutional interest seems to be temporarily declining, as spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a fifth consecutive week of outflows.

While the asset remains above $66,000 for the time being, the recent drop below $65K has reignited concerns that macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical issues are overshadowing the traditional narrative of inflation hedging.

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Analyzing the Polymarket Data

The 72% probability figure is derived from active contracts on Polymarket, where the volume of bearish bets is increasing.

Bets on Bitcoin dropping below $50,000 and $45,000 currently have odds of 62% and 47% respectively, with total trading volumes surpassing $1.5 million.

Intense crypto betting continues globally, even as the Dutch regulator instructs Polymarket to cease operations in certain jurisdictions and U.S. state regulators intensify scrutiny on prediction markets.

Technical indicators reinforce this caution; analysis from BeInCrypto points out bearish RSI divergence on weekly charts, which often precedes more significant corrections.

While prediction markets can sometimes overestimate, the strong confidence in prices below $55K corresponds with Standard Chartered’s forecast of a decline to $50,000 before any structural recovery towards $100,000, as reported in a recent investor note.

Standard Chartered warns Bitcoin could drop to $50K
Price now near $65K
Are you buying this dip… or waiting for capitulation? $BTC $ETH

— FlashNews (@FlashNewsInvest) February 13, 2026

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also remarked in a recent interview that $55,000 might signify the ultimate market bottom for this cycle.

What Does This Imply for BTC Price?

For traders, the $55,000 mark is a crucial threshold. If the current support level around $63,300 fails, liquidation cascades could swiftly confirm the bearish outlook suggested by the prediction market.

However, on-chain data indicates resilience: long-term holder selling decreased by 67% in February, from 244,919 BTC to just 81,019 BTC, implying that the “smart money” has ceased selling.

As traders seek crash protection through puts, reclaiming $72,200 remains essential to negate the bearish structure.

Despite short-term apprehension, Polymarket prediction markets still assign a 78% probability of BTC reaching $75,000 before 2027, suggesting that most market participants perceive this potential decline as a significant but temporary correction.

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The post Polymarket Shows 75% Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Below $55K – What Traders Need to Know appeared first on Cryptonews.