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Monero (XMR) encountered a significant barrier at $380 this week, intensifying a pessimistic outlook for Monero’s price as momentum wanes in the privacy coin market.
The rejection was sharp and definitive. The price movement is now trending downward, constrained below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with bears firmly dominating the market.
Monero Price Forecast: Can XMR Maintain $150 or Is a Decline to $135 Imminent?
XMR is currently positioned at $355.95 on the 2-hour chart, and while the structure appears disorganized, there are noteworthy elements beneath the surface.
The price experienced a severe decline in early February, plummeting from above $400 to $287 in a near-vertical drop, and since then, it has undergone a gradual and uneven recovery, establishing higher lows over the past six weeks without fully breaking down again.
Source: XMRUSD / TradingView
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The $400 level, indicated on the chart with a red dotted line, serves as a psychological and technical barrier that has not been regained since the initial drop, and every attempt to rally back to this level since February has been unsuccessful, including the latest surge to $383, which subsequently retraced to the $340 range before rebounding again.
The current price action indicates XMR is bouncing off the $340 region for the second time within a week, beginning to establish that area as a short-term support level, and the movement back toward $356 implies that buyers are consistently entering at this point.
The immediate resistance to overcome lies within the $360 to $370 range where the price has been consolidating, and above that, the recent high of $383 represents the final barrier before the $400 level comes back into focus.
The bearish scenario is clear: lower highs since the February peak, coupled with a choppy recovery pattern, suggests this is distribution rather than accumulation, and a drop below $340 would pave the way back toward the $305 to $310 lows.
The $400 level is the critical threshold. Until it is reclaimed, this chart remains in recovery mode rather than breakout mode.
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