BlackRock’s Investment in Bitcoin Sees Positive Returns Again – Is the Downtrend Coming to an End?

Bitcoin’s resurgence has led BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) back into the realm of profitability, signifying an important psychological milestone for both retail and institutional investors. According to Arkham Intelligence, IBIT investors collectively hold $3.2 billion in total profits, reversing weeks of pressure stemming from Bitcoin’s previous decline into the mid-$80,000s.

Data from Arkham indicates that the ETF’s average purchase price is nearing the break-even point, reinstating confidence among those who invested during the market’s late-summer fluctuations. This change is already evident in ETF inflows.

Bitcoin funds experienced two consecutive days of inflows, marking the first such occurrence in two weeks, with Wednesday contributing a modest yet significant $21 million. K33 Research notes that BlackRock remains the sole ETF issuer to report net positive inflows for 2025, highlighting its role in influencing broader market movements.

Market Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Recovery

Multiple factors are bolstering the current momentum. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, attributes much of Bitcoin’s strength this year to ongoing demand for spot ETFs. Concurrently, expectations surrounding a shift in Federal Reserve policy continue to bolster risk assets.

Markets currently assign approximately an 87% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the December 10 meeting, according to the Fedwatch tool, alleviating concerns regarding extended tightening.

Investor behavior also seems more stable. Even during Bitcoin’s sharp two-week decline, when ETF holders briefly dipped below their flow-weighted cost basis near $89,600, the majority of investors remained steadfast. Many are long-term holders rather than short-term traders, which diminishes the chances of panic-induced selling.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

The technical framework for Bitcoin now strengthens the bullish argument. On the 4-hour chart, BTC is approaching a descending trendline that has limited every rebound since early November.

After establishing a clear higher low at $86,878, the price has reclaimed the 20-EMA, creating a cluster of consistent candles, ranging from spinning tops to small bullish bodies, indicative of controlled accumulation.

Momentum Signals Support for Breakout

Bitcoin price forecasts have shifted slightly bullish as BTC is currently trading near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $90,798. While the 50-EMA is flattening above, a setup that often precedes an EMA crossover. The RSI near 68 indicates strong momentum without bearish divergence, allowing for potential upward movement.

Bitcoin Price Prediction – Source: Tradingview

If BTC can sustain support above $90,000, a breakout above $93,982 would validate the wedge-pattern expansion depicted by the TradingView path. This movement opens targets at $93,966, $97,135, and the more substantial resistance at $102,255. Should momentum carry into December, Bitcoin could even revisit $107,000, a level that corresponds with previous supply.

For traders, the structure favors a long position on a confirmed break of $93,982, using $90,000 as the invalidation zone.

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