Bitcoin Reaches $81K as Realized Gains Reach Highs: Is a Sell-the-News Scenario Approaching?

Bitcoin briefly exceeded $81,000 today, with net realized profits reaching $207.56 million, marking the highest monthly total in this cycle.

Who is offloading? ETF inflows and spot demand mitigated the initial selling pressure, but if long-term holders above the 155-day band were the ones realizing profits at $80K, the market signal may shift.

Realized profit reflects the total gain secured when coins are transacted on-chain above their original purchase price. As reported by Santiment, the $207.56 million figure on Sunday represents the highest monthly total for the current cycle. While it does not constitute an all-time high, it is a cycle-high figure at a psychologically significant price point.

Santiment

Coins acquired near $70,000 entered profit territory once Bitcoin surpassed $80,000, leading some of those holders to sell. Santiment observed that “high profit-taking in a rising market may suggest that buyers have capitalized on the supply,” while also indicating that Bitcoin “showed active demand during the ascent as it exceeded $80K while holders secured profits.”

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is trending towards levels historically linked with local peaks in previous cycles. When SOPR is elevated at a significant round number following a multi-month recovery rally, historical patterns diverge: in 2021, similar readings at resistance preceded a 20–30% retracement before continuation; in late 2023, they were absorbed, and the market advanced within weeks.

Discover: Best Crypto to Buy Right Now

Can Bitcoin Maintain $80K and Establish It as Support?

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin’s lower-timeframe structure remains intact as long as the price stays above the $73,000–$75,000 range, but the rejection near $80,000 does not present a clear technical signal. The $81,000 level is where cycle-based models indicate heightened risk.

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson has publicly cautioned that a decline in Bitcoin could lead to $65,500.

Calm down. Bitcoin only went up $20K.
But it had dropped $65K.
We are in a Bear Market.
For Elliott Wave enthusiasts, it is merely a wave.
For Wyckoff followers, it could just be a redistribution.
For Fibonacci analysts, it is simply an expansion.
For Onchain analysts, it is just a test of…

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 4, 2026

A weekly close above $81,000 that subsequently holds as support on the first retest would significantly alter the setup. In that case, the upside target would be the $86,000–$89,000 liquidity cluster, where short-term holder supply becomes the next friction point.

A failure below $80,700 would reverse the structure to bearish and bring the $75,000 and $73,000 demand zones back into consideration. This is a functional setup, but confirmation relies on maintaining levels above $81K, not merely breaching it.

BTC USD, TradingView

BTC ETF Inflows to Mitigate Long-Term Holder Distribution

MicroStrategy’s ongoing accumulation strategy and the net positive inflows from BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs provide a structural bid that was absent in previous cycles. Spot CVD surged 199.1% in the week leading up to the $81K milestone, indicating strong conviction in spot buying.

However, Bitcoin ETF inflows have shown signs of stagnation at zero net flows since the peak in October, and the distribution dynamics in the crypto market could become precarious if this trend does not reverse. If $207 million in realized profit signifies the beginning of sustained long-term holder selling into ETF demand, inflows must increase significantly to avert price compression.

Monitor the 30-day Bitcoin ETF inflow average over the next two weeks. A return to net positive weekly flows exceeding $500 million would confirm that institutional absorption is outpacing long-term holder distribution.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

The post Bitcoin Hits $81K as Realized Profits Peak: Is a Sell-the-News Event Imminent? appeared first on Cryptonews.