Bitcoin Price Forecast: Impact of Hormuz, Iran Conflict, Oil Prices, Metals, and Stock Market Compared to Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin’s price momentarily surpassed $78,000 yesterday, a level not seen since early February, before retreating and finding stability. The trigger was a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire that led to a decline in crude prices and resulted in $427 million in short liquidations, easing the Strait of Hormuz risk premium that had been constraining risk assets for several months.

$543,000,000,000 has been added to US stocks as the market opens. pic.twitter.com/2GZBAZ5CI3

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 17, 2026

Equities linked to cryptocurrency outperformed Bitcoin itself during the recovery. Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy each experienced increases of at least 25% by the close on Friday, while BTC recorded gains of just under 7% over the same five trading days. This performance is robust in isolation but modest in comparison.

Citi analyst Alex Saunders specifically noted the trend: “Crypto-equity correlations have strengthened following a recent dip,” indicating that stocks are now lifting crypto alongside them.

In the meantime, Tether has resumed its accumulation of BTC, with blockchain data from Arkham Intelligence revealing that 951 BTC were transferred to a wallet identified as “Tether: BTC Reserve,” marking a quiet yet notable purchase.

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Can Bitcoin Price Surpass $80,000 Before Ceasefire Ends?

Having already regained the 50-day EMA during the relief rally driven by the ceasefire, Bitcoin’s trading volume surged due to the short squeeze, with $6 billion in leveraged shorts still concentrated between $72,200 and $73,500, peaking around $72,500. That area has already been surpassed; those liquidations contributed to the current upward movement.

The technical landscape now presents $75,000–$80,000 as resistance against $62,000 support at the base of the two-month consolidation range.

BTC USD, TradingView

If the ceasefire remains intact, expectations for Fed rate cuts could solidify based on lower oil and inflation data, potentially allowing spot demand to drive BTC past $80,000. Forecast models average $78,600 with a ceiling near $82,500.

Whale data introduces a nuanced aspect. For only the second time in 2026, wallets containing more than 10,000 BTC have shown net inflows, indicating organic accumulation. Some analysts, including Canary Capital’s Steve McClurg, contend that 2026 is still the “bear leg” of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which has historically been characterized by 60–80% drawdowns from peaks.

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early-Mover Upside as BTC Awaits Confirmation

Bitcoin at $76,000 represents recovery territory, not discovery territory. From the current market capitalization, a 2x increase necessitates approximately $3 trillion in new investment. This calculation is why some traders are reallocating a portion of their exposure earlier on the risk curve, particularly towards infrastructure projects being developed on top of Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is establishing itself as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, merging Bitcoin’s security with smart contract execution that the project claims surpasses Solana in terms of latency.

The initiative addresses Bitcoin’s three structural limitations: slow transaction speeds, high fees, and lack of programmability. The presale has raised $32 million at a current token price of $0.0136, with staking available at a high APY for early participants.

Features include a Decentralized Canonical Bridge for BTC transfers and efficient, low-cost transaction execution designed to enable DeFi on the Bitcoin network.

Research Bitcoin Hyper here.

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