Analysts: Declining Toncoin Values Might Impact Overall Cryptocurrency Market, TON ‘Could Drop to $4.60’

Leaders in the Russian industry indicate that declining Toncoin (TON) values might impact the broader cryptocurrency market, potentially resulting in a “short-term” decline.

According to the Russian news source Izvestia, BitRiver CEO Igor Runets asserts that the likelihood of a downturn is “growing.”

He stated that “a considerable decrease in TON values” could “temporarily adversely affect the entire cryptocurrency market.”

Declining TON Values: Some Traders Will ‘Bet on Drops’

Runets noted that the detention of Pavel Durov, co-founder of Telegram, in France last Saturday, “raises significant concerns regarding internet freedom, data privacy, and the effective growth of the crypto market.”

Pavel Durov, the Russian-born creator of the messaging platform Telegram, was apprehended in France as part of an investigation into offenses related to child pornography, drug trafficking, and fraudulent activities on the platform, according to French prosecutors.

— Reuters (@Reuters) August 26, 2024

Ubit CEO Timofey Grigorenko commented that “typically,” some cryptocurrency traders tend to “speculate on price declines.”

Grigorenko asserted that numerous opportunistic traders “attempt in every possible way to influence the [value] of their profits” based on “significant news events and market sentiment.”

He mentioned that a similar situation arose following the sentencing of Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the founder of the major crypto exchange Binance, to four months in prison in the United States.

Increasing Uncertainty, According to Analyst

Sergey Ramaninov, an analyst for the Telegram channel RynkiDengiVlast (RDV), stated that the “uncertainty surrounding Durov’s arrest” has introduced certain risks for the cryptocurrency market.

Ramaninov indicated that “serious allegations” could compel Durov to “decide between making Telegram transparent to authorities or facing a lengthy prison sentence.”

Both scenarios, the analyst noted, would be equally “detrimental for both TON and Telegram.”

In the first scenario, Ramaninov suggested that Telegram would “lose its primary advantage, and consequently a substantial portion of its user base.”

Conversely, he stated that in the second scenario, the messaging app and the TON initiative would “be left without a public representative and thus encounter significant funding challenges.”

Ramaninov added that Durov’s previous remarks had attracted a “great deal of attention to the coin,” as well as to the Notcoin (NOT) and Hamster Kombat projects.

BitRiver CEO Igor Runets.

Grigorenko agreed, stating that Durov’s arrest “might also influence the Hamster Kombat project.”

The exchange leader mentioned that Hamster Kombat has “frequently delayed the listing of its token,” and added that the arrest “could result in another postponement.”

Fedor Ivanov, director of analytics at the digital asset security firm Shard, remarked that “if the issues with Durov remain unresolved,” the market might witness “a significant sell-off” of Hamster Kombat tokens “within the first moments after listings.”

Other Tokens to Gain?

Nonetheless, some analysts suggested that challenges related to TON could indirectly benefit other cryptocurrencies.

The chief analyst at Neomarkets, Oleg Kalmanovich, stated that “investors are shifting away from Toncoin to alternative cryptocurrencies.”

There may also be an “outflow of capital from Telegram projects,” another BitRiver representative noted, with “international investors” “already evaluating” developments in France.

Ivanov, for his part, observed that “confidence in the TON ecosystem is largely reliant on Durov’s persona.”

Izvestia also reported on August 26 that according to BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov, TON prices could decline to the $4.60 level following Durov’s arrest.

Toncoin (TON) prices over the past seven days. (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Durov’s Situation Still Unclear

TON experienced a sharp decline on Saturday after the news of Durov’s arrest emerged, but later stabilized. At the time of this writing, TON was trading at approximately $5.40 across most exchanges.

As Durov’s situation remains uncertain, Antonov stated that the Telegram founder could be held for “months.”

Consequently, Antonov asserted, “TON will continue to face pressure for an extended period.”

“Falling TON prices may reach the critical level of $4.60. The subsequent targets for sellers will be $4 and $3.50 per coin.”

BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov

The attorney Alexander Stepanov, meanwhile, suggested that Durov was “detained to extract confidential information.”

The United Arab Emirates requested French authorities for access to the detained Telegram founder, Pavel Durov, who is a citizen of the Gulf state.

— Bloomberg (@business) August 27, 2024

Earlier this month, Russia’s leading internet regulator claimed that the United States had “orchestrated” Durov’s arrest. Many media commentators in the country have since echoed similar sentiments.

The French prosecution service has charged Durov with 12 offenses. The tech entrepreneur faces a potential 20-year prison sentence if convicted.

Russian media outlets and politicians assert that his arrest signifies that the West has “initiated a new phase of hybrid warfare against Russia.”

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