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The bear market for Bitcoin ended in June, and the leading cryptocurrency is currently in an accumulation phase, according to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital.
To support his forecast, Alex Thorn cited the dynamics of technical indicators. During the June dip, Bitcoin held near the 200-week moving average. In September, the price rose above the 50-week moving average after 44 weeks of trading below this level. By October 18, the asset had held above the line for five consecutive weeks.
Thorn highlighted a decline in activity among large sellers. According to Galaxy Digital calculations, in 2024, Bitcoin holders who had kept their coins dormant for more than five years moved an average of 67,000 BTC monthly. In 2026, this figure dropped to 34,000 BTC. Simultaneously, asset managers reduced their net long positions in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) by 57% compared to October of the previous year.
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As another argument, the analyst pointed to demand from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since the June low, their combined holdings have grown by 87,000 Bitcoin. According to Thorn, the reduction in speculative positions while long-term investor interest remains indicates weakening selling pressure.
The expert recalled that during 2015–2016 and 2018–2019, the attention of major financial institutions shifted from Bitcoin to blockchain technologies. After reaching the lows of those periods, the leading cryptocurrency rose by factors of 83 and 20, respectively, at the peaks of the subsequent cycles. Thorn now observes a similar shift in interest toward stablecoins and tokenization.
The growth of U.S. national debt to $40.44 trillion and annual servicing costs to $1.28 trillion are seen by the analyst as additional arguments in favor of Bitcoin as a scarce asset. According to the analyst’s estimate, the price could reach $125,000 again. However, Thorn stated that a price below $76,540 without a recovery of this level within a month would serve as grounds for revising the forecast.
Previously, CryptoQuant expert Axel Adler suggested that Bitcoin’s bear cycle would not end until 2027. In his assessment, the accumulation phase for the leading cryptocurrency could last until the middle of next year.
