Bitcoin Holds Above $81,500 as Fed Maintains Rates in Split Decision

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged on Wednesday, holding the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. The bitcoin price exhibited volatility around the $81,000 mark.

The decision passed with a 10-2 vote, and the dissents carry significant weight. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both favored a quarter-point increase. This marks the first time since 1992 that a Fed governor and a regional bank president have dissented together on the same side.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addressed reporters after the vote, stating that politics played no role in the decision, which came days before the midterm elections. Warsh has indicated he does not favor forward guidance absent a crisis, leaving investors to interpret the data independently.

The committee’s statement removed earlier language regarding when a rate hike might support a return to 2% inflation. In its place, it stated that more information would guide the policy stance. The Fed also described economic growth as strong, an upgrade from its previous assessment of “solid.”

The signal points toward tightening. Fed funds futures and the Fed’s own dot plot lean toward a rate increase by December, with some pricing indicating odds near three in four. Inflation has been running hot, and the two dissenters are the officials advocating for action on this front.

Bitcoin price reaction

Bitcoin’s reaction was restrained. The price spiked to approximately $81,700 in the minutes following the announcement, fell below $80,500, and then recovered toward $81,000. Most traders had anticipated a hold, so the muted move was not surprising.

Bitcoin’s initial response to Fed news tends to be modest, with the real direction often emerging over the following day. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26 and $176 million on October 27, signaling that some institutional money is buying the dip. However, other observers have noted large holders selling into strength.

This tension defines crypto’s current position. Bitcoin is trading about a third below its October 2025 record near $126,000. A path of rate hikes works against an asset that has thrived on cheap money, and the market has spent months adjusting to the possibility that the era of easy money is over.

Some traders interpret the hold as evidence that the Fed will move slowly. Others view December as the real test. For now, the key level to watch is $80,000. It has held as support in recent sessions, and a clean break below it would expose the next support floor.

Warsh and his colleagues have stated they will wait for incoming data before acting. Bitcoin will have to wait along with everyone else.

Midterms up next

Bitcoin’s next major political test arrives on November 3, when voters across the country head to the polls. Crypto has not dominated the campaign trail.

The crypto industry spent approximately $176 million on more than 100 midterm races to build a bipartisan bloc in Congress that could protect its interests after President Donald Trump leaves office. Fairshake, the industry’s largest super PAC, led the effort and directed strategy as it had in the 2024 cycle.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is $81,478.