Bitcoin Price Holds Near $80,500 as Fed Decision and Midterms Loom

Bitcoin traded near $80,500 for most of Tuesday, maintaining its position above the $80,000 level, which has become the market’s key support line. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, prices ranged between approximately $79,400 and $80,800 throughout the day, with the asset gaining about 0.3% over the prior 24 hours by mid-afternoon Eastern time.

This stability follows a turbulent period. Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on Monday as investors reduced risk exposure, weighed down by concerns over AI-sector valuations and rising oil prices. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also experienced outflows. However, the selling pressure has not escalated into panic, with Bitcoin largely trading within a band between $79,000 and $81,000 this week.

The longer-term outlook remains challenging for those who bought near the peak. Bitcoin’s all-time high stands near $126,000, set in October 2025, and the current price is roughly 30% lower than its level a year ago.

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28, with the decision expected on Wednesday. The central bank has maintained its target interest rate range at 3.75% to 4% following a hike in September, and officials have indicated that another increase may be necessary by year-end.

Market odds leaned toward a rate hold the last time they were clearly reported in early October, but those figures are now stale and likely have shifted. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for clues regarding a potential December rate hike.

Bitcoin price dynamics amid the midterms

The logic for Bitcoin is straightforward. Higher interest rates drain liquidity from speculative assets, meaning a hawkish surprise from the Fed would likely push the price back toward $80,000 or lower.

Conversely, a hold or a softer tone could provide buyers with room to push prices toward the $88,000 range seen earlier this fall. The November 3 midterm elections add another layer of complexity. Prediction markets have favored Democrats winning both chambers of Congress, according to a Polymarket reading cited in recent coverage.

For the crypto industry, the most immediate policy question revolves around the pending market structure bill, and lawmakers’ votes on it could significantly shape how the sector approaches the elections. Bitcoin and other risk assets have historically rallied in the 12 months following past midterm cycles.

TD Cowen analysts have warned that the election results could stall the CLARITY Act for two years. Prediction markets assigned a 90% probability to Democrats winning the House and a 62% probability to them winning the Senate—a scenario TD Cowen described as the most negative for Bitcoin.

A split Congress, with Republicans retaining the Senate, was viewed as a more favorable outcome, while a Republican sweep was seen as the best path for crypto. The bill had stalled after a failed Senate cloture vote in September, with ethics provisions and stablecoin yield remaining points of division among lawmakers.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is approximately $80,600.