XRP Price Forecast: Will Positive Trends and Large Holder Interest Counteract the Recent Decline?

XRP is currently priced at $2.82, with a daily trading volume of $3.19 billion and a market capitalization of $167.5 billion, placing it in third position among cryptocurrencies. Although the price has increased by 0.49% over the last 24 hours, a more complex situation is developing beneath the surface.

On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant indicate that large holders, often referred to as “whales,” have been consistently decreasing their XRP holdings throughout 2025. Maartunn describes this as a distribution phase, where tokens are being moved from significant holders to retail investors. Outflows paused in the middle of the year but then picked up again, suggesting ongoing selling pressure.

In contrast, retail traders maintain a strong bullish outlook. Current funding rates on Coinalyze are at 0.0114 and are expected to rise to 0.0159. Open interest is recorded at $2.87 billion, with traders taking long positions to benefit from potential further increases. The dynamic between whale selling and retail buying could lead to significant volatility if new capital does not absorb the supply entering the market.

Adoption and Institutional Speculation

In addition to trading dynamics, XRP’s ecosystem is broadening. Gemini and Ripple have introduced a credit card that offers cashback rewards in XRP, providing 4% back on categories like fuel and EV charging, and up to 10% back with selected merchants. This initiative enhances XRP’s utility and promotes adoption beyond mere speculation.

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— RippleX (@RippleXDev) August 25, 2025

At the institutional level, XRP is gaining momentum in futures markets. CME contracts have recently achieved a significant milestone, becoming the fastest to reach $1 billion in open interest in the exchange’s history. This development has reignited discussions regarding a spot XRP ETF, with prediction markets estimating an 82% likelihood of approval by the end of 2025.

Key factors influencing sentiment:

• Whales are decreasing their exposure and distributing tokens.
• Retail leverage is on the rise, with elevated funding rates.
• Open interest at $2.87 billion, with increasing speculation.
• Growth in CME futures, alongside ETF speculation.
• New XRP credit card enhancing real-world utility.

Some contend that XRP’s initial role as a cross-border bridge currency has been overshadowed by competitors providing more efficient alternatives. Nevertheless, the activity in derivatives markets and retail engagement continues to bolster its standing.

XRP Price Prediction: Technical Outlook

From a technical analysis standpoint, XRP’s price prediction remains under strain. The price is positioned below a descending trendline established from August highs, with the 50-SMA at $2.94 limiting upward movements and the 200-SMA at $2.88 serving as a short-term equilibrium.

Momentum appears cautious. The RSI at 39 indicates weak demand, while the MACD is slightly below neutral. Candlestick patterns reflect uncertainty, with spinning tops forming near resistance, often suggesting that a breakout may be imminent.

Key levels that traders are monitoring:

• Resistance: $2.99, $3.25, and $3.43.
• Support: $2.79, $2.58, and $2.43.
• A significant breakout above $2.99 could pave the way toward $3.43.
• Failure to maintain this level risks a decline to $2.28, completing a wedge breakdown.

For traders, the setup appears asymmetric. Surpassing $2.99 with substantial volume could establish the groundwork for a near-term rally toward $3.43 and a potential medium-term ascent beyond $3.67.

XRP holds $2.83 as whales sell into retail demand. Key breakout level: $2.99. Above it, bulls eye $3.43. Below $2.79, risks deepen. #XRP #Crypto pic.twitter.com/M2C60jzzxS

— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) August 31, 2025

In the broader context, XRP’s consolidation appears more like a foundation than a downturn. If trends in adoption persist and ETF approval progresses, this phase could signify the groundwork for XRP’s next significant advancement.

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