VanEck Upholds $180K Bitcoin Projection as CME Basis Rates Reach 9% High

Investment firm VanEck has reiterated its $180,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite recent fluctuations in the market, as CME basis funding rates soar to 9%, the highest since February 2025.

Bitcoin surged to $124,000 on August 13 after dropping to $112,000 earlier in the month, establishing a new all-time high above July’s $123,838.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading near $115K, which is 8% lower than its ATH.

Institutional Demand Fuels Recovery Amid Volatility Compression

VanEck’s recent analysis reveals that institutional demand remains strong, with exchange-traded products acquiring 54,000 BTC and Digital Asset Treasuries adding 72,000 BTC in July alone.

The firm continues to uphold its optimistic outlook first established in November 2024, when Bitcoin was priced around $88,000.

Source: VanEck

CME basis rates reaching 9% particularly signify a renewed speculative interest among derivatives traders, matching levels last observed during February’s market peak.

Additionally, options markets demonstrate strong bullish positioning, with call/put ratios increasing to 3.21x – the highest since June 2024 – as investors allocated $792 million on call premiums.

However, implied volatility has decreased to just 32%, significantly below the 50% one-year average, making options more affordable for prospective buyers.

Source: VanEck

A 25% out-of-the-money one-year call now costs around 6% of the spot price, compared to 18% in late 2024.

Similarly, the report indicated that the mining sector exhibited mixed outcomes despite Bitcoin’s gains, with the 13-miner equity index declining 4% when excluding Applied Digital’s 54% increase.

U.S.-listed miners now represent 31.5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate, up from 29% earlier this year, marking a record high for American mining operations.

Industry Leaders Divided on Million-Dollar Bitcoin Timeline

Earlier this month, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joined the increasing number of executives forecasting that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, aligning with earlier predictions from Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood.

Armstrong pointed to regulatory clarity and institutional adoption as crucial factors for this ambitious target.

In contrast, SOL Strategies CEO Leah Wald provided a more cautious near-term perspective, estimating Bitcoin could rise to $175,000 by year-end.

Wald characterized her forecast as conservative compared to other institutional estimates, noting that major investors like Cathie Wood and Larry Fink have supported “astronomically high” targets based on advanced models.

While optimism prevails, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expressed reservations about near-term million-dollar forecasts, cautioning that such levels might indicate a U.S. economic collapse rather than success in crypto.

Novogratz stated he would prefer lower Bitcoin prices in a stable economy over inflated valuations resulting from a currency crisis.

Similarly, in July, Copper’s head of research, Fadi Aboualfa, suggested Bitcoin seems “primed for another significant leg upward” but warned that institutionally-driven markets may follow a “more tempered path” compared to previous retail-driven cycles.

” Bitcoin appears primed for another significant leg upward,” a top analyst tells Cryptonews#ATH #Altcoins #XRPhttps://t.co/fjgsked2GV

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Aboualfa projected Bitcoin could surpass $140,000 in September and reach $150,000 by early October.

However, observing this growing institutionally-driven bull market, Preston Pysh of Ego Death Capital has voiced skepticism regarding Wall Street’s increasing influence on Bitcoin, noting that early adopters fear institutional derivatives trading could compromise Bitcoin’s safe-haven attributes.

Pysh cautioned that traditional financial entities might utilize Bitcoin differently than the self-custodying individuals who established the network.

Market Dynamics Indicate Traditional Cycles Remain Intact

Amid this mixed market speculation, new Glassnode analysis challenges prevalent assertions that institutional adoption has disrupted Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycles.

The analytics firm found that the current cycle duration and long-term holder profit-taking levels closely resemble previous patterns, contradicting “cycle death” narratives from industry figures.

Glassnode data indicates Bitcoin’s current cycle has maintained supply above profitable levels for 273 days, making it the second-longest duration on record, following the 2015-2018 cycle’s 335 days.

Source: Glassnode

Long-term holders have realized cumulative profits exceeding all prior cycles except for 2016-2017.

Furthermore, derivatives markets continue to exhibit heightened risk appetite typical of mature bull phases, with Bitcoin futures open interest remaining at $67 billion levels.

The recent unwinding of $2.3 billion in open interest during corrections ranks among the largest 23 trading days recorded.

Ethereum’s derivatives dominance reached critical levels, with perpetual futures volume achieving an all-time high of 67% compared to Bitcoin markets.

However, combined altcoin liquidations peaked at $303 million daily, experiencing double the volume compared to Bitcoin futures markets.

Market analysts interpret Bitcoin’s recent pullback as strategic repositioning rather than fundamental weakness, with NoOnes CEO Ray Youssef noting the correction followed overextended leverage after reaching new highs above $124,000.

The technical outlook depends on Bitcoin maintaining psychological support between $100,000-$110,000, with structural buying interest remaining above this range.

A decisive break below $112,000 could prompt a deeper retracement toward $110,000 and potentially $105,000.

Nevertheless, a recovery in risk appetite, particularly as ETH and BTC achieved new ATH, could reignite momentum toward previous ATH and beyond, given that institutional demand continues to outstrip supply.

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