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VanEck has proclaimed 2026 as a “risk-on” year for investors, even as Bitcoin deviates from its conventional four-year cycle. CEO Jan van Eck has identified artificial intelligence, private credit, and gold as attractive opportunities following corrections in late 2025.
The asset manager’s Q1 2026 forecast highlights an unparalleled clarity in fiscal and monetary policy, representing a significant shift from recent years, which were characterized by economic uncertainty. This contrasts with Goldman Sachs’ prediction of 11% global stock returns mainly driven by equities over alternative assets.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research
Van Eck attributes this enhanced clarity to the influence of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
“Scott Bessent made a significant impression during a podcast interview in the last week of 2025 that I found profound. I actually listened to it three times,” van Eck remarked, emphasizing Bessent’s assertion that current interest rates signify “normal levels” rather than necessitating drastic cuts.
The secretary’s perspective indicates that the Fed will adopt a cautious monetary policy, with market anticipations of only 25 to 50 basis points in rate changes throughout 2026.
Van Eck pointed out that Bessent explicitly criticized the excessive quantitative easing following COVID, which he linked to the ongoing 10% inflation that continues to frustrate Americans.
https://t.co/K0FkMxj2yv
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) January 12, 2026
Fiscal Stability and AI Opportunities Fuel Optimism
The US fiscal landscape indicates significant improvement, with deficits reducing as a proportion of GDP from the peaks seen during the COVID era, thus helping stabilize long-term interest rates.
VanEck forecasts the fiscal 2026 deficit to be at 5.5% of GDP or lower, countering more pessimistic predictions from Wall Street.
Van Eck highlighted that GDP growth could surpass consensus expectations substantially, mentioning that Bessent suggested analysts are “an order of magnitude wrong” in their forecasts, which barely exceed 2%, especially when fourth-quarter 2025 growth hit 4%.
“The prevailing concern is that we are selecting a new Fed chair, as we do every four years, in May 2026 and that Donald Trump is exerting excessive influence over the Fed,” van Eck explained in his quarterly video update, before arguing that Bessent’s groundwork facilitates a smooth confirmation process.
According to VanEck’s analysis, AI valuations have returned to appealing levels following corrections in late 2025.
“I aim to demonstrate that the bubble has burst and it’s time to reassess your AI allocations,” van Eck stated in his video presentation, mentioning that companies dependent on debt for data center expansions faced stock price drops exceeding 50% from their summer highs.
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Oracle, a diversified technology firm that secured significant compute contracts, saw its stock correct considerably from levels van Eck described as “nosebleed,” despite strong demand for tokens and compute capacity.
Stocks in the nuclear power sector, linked to AI electricity demand, also experienced meaningful repricing, enhancing the risk-reward dynamics for medium-term investors.
Source: VanEck
Private Credit and Gold Seen as Alternative Opportunities
Business development companies are now offering compelling value after a challenging 2025, with yields reaching 9% amid concerns regarding floating-rate debt exposure and isolated fraud incidents in private markets.
Van Eck noted that management firms like Ares Capital have seen valuations compress from 50 times forward earnings to around 35 times, bringing them back to historical norms.
“A well-known Wall Street CEO remarked there was a cockroach in the private credit markets. I believe those fears are exaggerated but accurately priced and represent an opportunity,” van Eck stated, acknowledging previous caution while now identifying attractive entry points.
Gold continues its structural resurgence as a global monetary asset, bolstered by central bank demand and a diminishing reliance on the dollar worldwide.
VanEck views recent developments in Venezuela as reinforcing geopolitical uncertainty that boosts demand for precious metals, as governments globally recognize the US’s propensity to seize assets or engage militarily.
While gold seems technically extended in short-term charts, van Eck frames pullbacks as opportunities for purchasing within a multi-year trend he anticipates will persist through 2028 and beyond, dubbing it a “paradigm change” similar to the transition off the gold standard in 1971.
Bitcoin Cycle Disruption Complicates Short-Term Outlook
Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle was disrupted in 2025, creating uncertainty for the typically strong initial half of post-halving years.
Van Eck expressed caution regarding the next three to six months, noting that Bitcoin was the worst-performing asset in 2025 despite not undergoing its usual three-year peak phase.
“Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle was broken in 2025, complicating short-term indicators,” the outlook stated, with VanEck colleagues Matthew Sigel and David Schassler holding more optimistic immediate-term views.
This cautious perspective aligns with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s warning that capital inflows into Bitcoin have “completely dried up,” as a rotation toward stocks and precious metals leads to sideways trading expectations through Q1 2026.
The post VanEck Says 2026 Will Be Risk-On Quarter Despite Bitcoin Cycle Break appeared first on Cryptonews.
