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A prominent analyst from South Korea has forecasted a potential 642% “ceiling” for Bitcoin (BTC) price appreciation over the next decade.
According to News1, this prediction was included in a report by Kim Yu-min, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, titled “Bitcoin: From Cyberpunk to Wall Street.”
Bitcoin Price Growth: Ceilings and Floors
As reported by News1, Kim’s assessment indicated that “the future price of Bitcoin will increase by at least 84% and at most 642%” based on current valuations in the coming decade.
The news outlet highlighted that if BTC prices were to rise by approximately 642%, Bitcoin would attain “around 616 million won [$460,790]” by 2034.
Bitcoin prices since 2013. (Source: CoinGecko)
Kim’s analysis was grounded in data related to gold and credit default swaps (CDS), emphasizing that Bitcoin also offers investors “value storage” and “decentralization.”
The analyst pointed out that Bitcoin is “more convenient to trade and store than gold.”
“In the modern era, a time when transactions between countries and individuals are increasing rapidly, [the crypto market] could potentially expand in size to surpass the gold market.”
Kim Yu-min, Researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities
Kim also noted that such scenarios are becoming increasingly likely as politicians explore the “possibility of utilizing Bitcoin as a national reserve asset.”
If Bitcoin’s acceptance were to exceed that of gold and emerge as a viable option for global central bank reserves and investors, the token’s “upside potential” could reach 577%, Kim stated.
Additionally, Kim mentioned that “investors holding US Treasury bonds purchase CDS to mitigate the risk of government default and lessen their overall exposure to the US economy.”
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are experiencing significant losses for the month thus far, even as global stocks trend toward record highs https://t.co/6qQ3hByW2D
— Bloomberg (@business) August 19, 2024
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These transactions, Kim elaborated, operate “similarly to Bitcoin in terms of hedging central bank risk.”
US Debt and BTC State Adoption – ‘Key Factors’
The analyst incorporated projections regarding the growth of US government debt until 2034, estimating it could reach $600 billion by that year.
Kim suggested that Bitcoin investment could serve as a hedge against the risks associated with a US government default. However, the expert acknowledged that “other assets are available” and that BTC price increases could be as modest as 162% over the next decade.
International companies are facing a DEMAND SLOWDOWN in China. No surprise.
China’s MONEY SUPPLY (M2) is expanding at only 6.2% per year. This is significantly below Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 11% per year, a rate aligned with achieving China’s inflation target of 3% per year. https://t.co/0waHDVyW6C— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) August 19, 2024
Nonetheless, Kim proposed that the state of the US economy would not be the sole determinant of BTC price increases in the coming decade.
The analyst indicated that there exists “a possibility that nations with [poor] currency stability could adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.”
“Bitcoin has the potential to reduce remittance costs and enhance access to financial infrastructure.”
Kim Yu-min, Researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities
Kim asserted that “if we assume that 10% of the annual $1.6 trillion M2 supply flows into Bitcoin over the next 10 years, the coin’s upside potential is 642%.”
Economists refer to M2 as the total amount of cash that a country’s citizens hold, either in physical form or in short-term bank deposits.
Earlier this summer, regulators in Argentina engaged in discussions with their counterparts in El Salvador regarding the latter’s experience with BTC adoption.
However, as of now, El Salvador remains the only country globally to have embraced BTC adoption to this extent. The nation officially recognized Bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021.
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