Robust Employment Data Boosts Dollar While Bitcoin Drops Below $111K – Is This the Conclusion of the BTC Bull Market?

A surprisingly robust U.S. jobs report propelled financial markets this week, causing the dollar to soar while Bitcoin fell below $111,000.

Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000 in the third week of September, reaching a two-month low, while Q2 GDP growth was adjusted upward to 3.8% from 3.3%.

The positive economic indicators boosted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to a three-week peak, increasing by 0.3% on the day, but significantly impacted risk assets, with Bitcoin now testing support around $111,000.

Dollar surged on the strong data$DXY +0.3% pic.twitter.com/6l36h1QJA0

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) September 25, 2025

Economic Strength Reduces Rate Cut Probabilities as Bitcoin Dips Below $111K

Bloomberg Terminal data indicates that the latest economic figures diminish the likelihood of swift Fed rate cuts. Following last week’s 25-bp reduction, Fed Governor Miran advocated for quicker easing, but Powell advised caution.

The probability of an October rate cut has now decreased to 85.5% from 92%, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Source: CME Group

Glassnode market insights also indicated that Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of fatigue. ETF inflows, previously a significant absorber of Bitcoin supply, sharply declined around the FOMC meeting, and the distribution among long-term holders accelerated, creating a delicate balance in flows.

This weakness is evident in both spot and futures markets, suggesting growing exhaustion. With short-term holders’ $111K cost basis now acting as crucial support, this level must be maintained to avert further declines.

Moreover, BTC has fallen below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, a critical risk zone that often signifies profit-taking periods.

Source: Glassnode

Reclaiming this level would signal renewed strength, but failing to do so risks a decline toward lower support levels around $105K–$90K.

Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including reports of Russian jet interceptions over Alaska, has contributed to market weakness.

U.S. fighter jets were dispatched Wednesday to identify and intercept four Russian warplanes operating near Alaska, according to the North American Aerospace Defense Command. https://t.co/xCl0PXoIYl

— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 25, 2025

Ongoing conflicts in Gaza have also driven traders to seek safe-haven assets, such as gold, leaving Bitcoin struggling to draw in new investments. However, some market analysts view this as a temporary bearish scenario.

Analysts and Long-Term Investors Confident BTC Bull Market Not Yet Concluded

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that while Bitcoin is facing challenges below $112K, the 21-week EMA continues to rise, attempting to reclaim $114,200 to negate the bearish setup.

He emphasized that the BTC price must stay above this EMA moving forward to position for a reclaim of bullish territory and strive for a new high.

Source:X/Rektcapital

The prevailing sentiment remains that Bitcoin and the broader market may decline further, but the bull run is not finished.

Bitcoin is still trading at a range low, with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming, and currently establishing a higher low.

The price is also adhering to typical seasonal patterns and pullbacks that in four of the last five years have mirrored similar behavior before the market rallies in October and November.

Despite the short-term weakness, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million by 2030.

Similarly, crypto billionaire and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has also predicted that Bitcoin could hit $1M and potentially surge as high as $3.4 million by 2028.

This forecast relies on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implementing yield curve control policies that could trigger extensive money printing, resulting in what Hayes describes as a “once in a century change of the global monetary architecture.”

@CryptoHayes predicts $3.4 million Bitcoin by 2028 based on Treasury yield curve control policies and massive money printing scenarios.#Bitcoin #Predictionhttps://t.co/DeV8BsWviO

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) September 23, 2025

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s $116K Rejection Indicates $108K Target

From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin 1-hour chart reveals that the price has broken down from the upward channel that supported the recent rally, falling below the $116,000 resistance and testing the $112,000 support area.

The unsuccessful breakout attempts near resistance imply that sellers have taken control, and the recent decline confirms diminishing momentum.

Source: TradingView

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering just above support at $111,000–$112,000, which is a critical level to monitor.

If this zone holds, a rebound could see the price retest the $116,000 resistance.

However, if the support is decisively breached, it would likely pave the way for further declines, potentially extending toward $108,000.

Overall, the chart indicates a shift in short-term sentiment from bullish to cautious, with the next movement dependent on whether support holds or fails.

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