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Retail Investors Suffer $17 Billion Loss as Bitcoin Treasury Shares Decline, According to 10x Research
Retail investors seeking Bitcoin exposure via public companies such as Metaplanet and Michael Saylor’s Strategy have incurred losses estimated at $17 billion, as reported by 10x Research.
Key Takeaways:
- Retail investors have faced an estimated $17 billion in losses while pursuing Bitcoin exposure through various companies.
- Analysts indicated that investors overpaid by approximately $20 billion, as companies sold shares significantly above the actual value of their Bitcoin holdings.
- The report anticipates a transition towards disciplined, arbitrage-focused Bitcoin asset management.
The firm noted that these losses originated from share premiums that previously valued these companies well above the worth of their Bitcoin assets, premiums that have since diminished.
“The era of financial magic is concluding for Bitcoin treasury firms,” analysts at 10x Research stated in the report “After the Magic: How Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Evolve Beyond NAV Illusions.”
Retail Investors Overpaid $20B for Bitcoin Exposure, 10x Research Reports
According to them, retail investors “overpaid for Bitcoin exposure by about $20 billion,” while companies discreetly converted inflated share prices into actual BTC on their balance sheets.
The research likened the approach of these digital asset treasury (DAT) firms to “financial alchemy,” where stock sales at inflated valuations were consistently utilized to acquire more Bitcoin.
Starting from a $1 billion BTC base, Metaplanet’s market capitalization soared to $8 billion at its peak before plummeting to $3.1 billion, despite holding $3.3 billion in Bitcoin.
“In the process, shareholders lost $4.9 billion in value, while the company succeeded in accumulating $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin,” the report stated.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) exhibited a similar trend.
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Its shares, which previously traded at multiples ranging from three to seven times the firm’s actual Bitcoin holdings, now hover around 1.4 times NAV, eliminating much of the speculative premium that characterized the previous cycle.
After the Magic: How Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Evolve Beyond NAV Illusions
Why this report matters
The era of financial magic is concluding for Bitcoin treasury companies.
They generated billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their actual Bitcoin value—until the… pic.twitter.com/mS34Wqhzmm— 10x Research (@10x_Research) October 17, 2025
According to 10x, this NAV “normalization” could signify a pivotal moment for the industry. Companies trading near or below their Bitcoin value may offer “pure BTC exposure with potential for future trading profits.”
Analysts contend that firms that adapt, transitioning from hype-driven treasuries to arbitrage-style asset management, could still achieve annual returns of 15–20%.
The report concludes that while the “magic” may be finished, the resulting shakeout will pave the way for a new generation of disciplined Bitcoin asset managers.
As the market evolves, only firms with robust capital foundations and skilled trading teams “will shape the next bull market.”
Novogratz Indicates Treasury Crypto Boom Has Reached Its Peak, Focus Shifts to Survivors
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz suggests that the surge of new crypto treasury companies has likely reached its zenith, with focus now shifting to which established firms can scale and lead.
During Galaxy’s Q2 earnings call, he remarked, “We’ve probably gone through peak treasury company issuance,” indicating a more competitive phase ahead.
The surge in treasury-based crypto firms was driven by favorable U.S. regulations, with companies like Strategy, GameStop, Trump Media, and SharpLink allocating reserves to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets.
However, Novogratz cautioned that market saturation could hinder newcomers from gaining traction, particularly as Ethereum-focused treasuries like BitMine and SharpLink continue to grow.
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