Polymarket Prices 62% Chance of 25-Base-Point Fed Hike in September

Polymarket’s Fed rates dashboard indicates a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The dashboard assigns a 39% probability to the outcome of no change. Probabilities for a 50-basis-point or larger hike, a 25-basis-point cut, and a 50-basis-point or larger cut are each listed at below 1%.

This pricing structure presents a narrower set of likely outcomes for the September meeting. A quarter-point hike is the expected decision, while a hold remains the other outcome with substantial probability. Cut scenarios are priced at less than 1%, placing them well behind the two leading possibilities in this snapshot.

(Source – Polymarket)

How Likely is a Fed Rate Cut Next Week?

Polymarket lists a 25-basis-point hike at 62% and a hold at 39%. These figures place a rate increase ahead of a hold, though the hold outcome remains significant in the displayed pricing. All other listed outcomes are below 1%.

The dashboard provides probabilities for these specific meeting outcomes but does not explain the reasoning behind the prices or forecast how financial markets may react to the decision. The figures represent event pricing for the September meeting rather than an analysis of the economic developments that may influence policymakers.

Earlier readings reported by Yahoo Finance illustrate how pricing varied across different venues. On September 8, Polymarket traders indicated 49% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, Kalshi traders assigned 48%, and CME FedWatch showed nearly 56%, according to Yahoo Finance.

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These figures were reported prior to the current 62% Polymarket reading and originate from separate market-based measures, providing context rather than a direct comparison of identical prices at the same moment.

What happens at the September Fed Rate Meeting?

If the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points on September 16, the result would align with Polymarket’s leading listed outcome. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged, it would align with the dashboard’s second-largest listed outcome. The dashboard lists alternatives such as a larger hike or a cut at below 1%.

Other interest-rate market measures have also shown elevated odds of a rate hike. CNBC reported on September 10 that CME Group’s FedWatch gauge placed the chance of a rate increase at 70% during morning trading.

This reading followed an August wholesale-price report and a rise in U.S. crude oil prices above $100 a barrel. The report also noted that market pricing put the chance of another increase in December at nearly 60%.

The CNBC reading is higher than Polymarket’s current 62% figure and was reported on a different date using CME FedWatch. This difference underscores that market-based gauges can show varying probabilities as pricing evolves and as different venues reflect their specific market conditions.

Polymarket’s current dashboard places immediate focus on whether the September meeting results in a quarter-point hike or no change. Its below-1% listings for both cut outcomes indicate that rate cuts were not among the leading scenarios for this meeting.

For readers following the decision, the relevant distinction lies between the dashboard’s 62% hike probability and its 39% no-change probability, alongside separate readings from other market-based gauges.

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