Polymarket Experiences Historic $116 Million in Trading Volume Driven by Bets on US Presidential Election

The decentralized predictions platform Polymarket has achieved unprecedented trading volumes driven by the excitement surrounding the upcoming United States presidential election.

In just the first half of July, the platform recorded an impressive $116.4 million in trading volume, exceeding its previous record of $111.5 million set in June.

This increase in trading activity can be directly linked to speculators placing bets on the results of the forthcoming election.

Political Traders Bet $263M

Political traders have collectively placed an extraordinary $263.5 million in bets on predicting the winning candidate for the US election set for November 4.

According to the latest statistics, prediction traders are leaning towards former President Donald Trump, who has a 69% probability of winning, while current President Joe Biden is at 19%.

Vice President Kamala Harris is at 6%, and former First Lady Michelle Obama has garnered only 2% of the bets.

Since the start of this year, Polymarket has recorded a total of $471.9 million in wagers across a variety of events, including politics, finance, sports, and cryptocurrencies.

The platform has become a preferred choice for traders looking to speculate on American political events, although it is currently not accessible to users based in the United States.

Additionally, Polymarket recently completed a successful $70 million Series B funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund, with participation from prominent individuals such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

“Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy,” Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, stated in a recent post on X.

“They take free markets and free speech as inputs and output truth. In an age when centralized control of information is a systemic risk, prediction markets provide a means of cutting through misleading narratives and accessing the unvarnished truth.”

.@Polymarket’s astronomical success is the most important story in crypto right now, but it’s so obvious that we are ignoring it, when we should be screaming it from the rooftops.

Prediction markets are the purest technological manifestation of liberal democracy. They take free… pic.twitter.com/XlubHYDicq

— yuga.eth (@yugacohler) June 30, 2024

Trump to Attend Bitcoin Conference in Nashville

Trump is set to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, following an assassination attempt on July 13 during a rally in Pennsylvania.

David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and one of the event’s organizers, confirmed Trump’s attendance, reassuring participants that the former president is in good spirits.

It is noteworthy that Trump’s rising popularity within the crypto community coincides with a significant shift in his views on cryptocurrencies.

Despite having previously labeled Bitcoin a “scam,” he has recently altered his perspective.

On June 14, he announced that he would terminate the Biden administration’s “war on crypto” if he were to be elected president.

Trump has also criticized Biden for his stringent approach to cryptocurrencies, stressing that the United States should aim to lead in the crypto sector.

According to a survey conducted by the Harris Poll, one in three voters in the US considers a candidate’s stance on cryptocurrencies when making their voting choices.

Another survey by leading crypto venture capital firm Paradigm indicates that Trump’s polling numbers for the 2024 US Presidential Election receive considerable backing from the crypto community.

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