Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Drop to 15% for Passage in 2026

Bitcoin is trading at $78,646.05, down 0.28% over the last 24 hours—a quiet figure for a market currently fixated on Washington rather than technical charts. The reason lies in the collapse of the Polymarket CLARITY Act odds contract, which has fallen from an 82% probability of passage in February to just 13% by early August. This sharp decline has rattled traders who viewed regulatory clarity as the next major market catalyst.

The Senate faces a critical cloture vote on H.R. 3633 on September 15. This bill would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive authority over spot digital-commodity markets while leaving the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in charge of securities-classified tokens and exchange oversight. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the bill requires seven Democratic votes to cross the aisle and reach the 60-vote threshold needed for cloture.

The Polymarket contract, which has seen over $11.5 million in volume, now implies only a 13-14% chance of enactment in 2026. This stands in stark contrast to Kalshi’s 91% probability that a Senate vote will occur at all before October 1. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong remains publicly “rather optimistic” about clearing the 60 votes, but prediction markets are telling a colder story.

This gap between “a vote happens” and “the bill actually passes” represents the core trade here. It is also influencing how traders price crypto-adjacent risk heading into the fourth quarter.

Can Bitcoin Hold Support as Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Crater?

$BTC just broke above the triangle range but this move looks eerily familiar.
The first time we saw this setup it ended in a -38% drawdown and the second time it led to a -30% move lower.
Now price is repeating the same breakout and manipulation structure with RSI back in the… pic.twitter.com/CEjeNgOhj8

— Wealthmanager (@Wealthmanager) September 1, 2026

BTC’s 0.28% daily slide to $78,646.05 is not dramatic in isolation, but it occurs against a backdrop of regulatory uncertainty, which typically compresses risk appetite.

The $76,000-$78,000 zone has functioned as near-term support through recent sessions; a break below invites a retest of the low-$70Ks. Upside resistance sits near $82,000-$84,000, a level BTC has not reclaimed with conviction since the momentum around the CLARITY Act began fading in July.

Bull case: A surprise bipartisan push or committee reschedule flips sentiment, odds rebound toward 30%+, and BTC tests $84K.

Base case: Consolidation continues near current levels as the Senate calendar drags without resolution.

Bear case: The September 15 cloture vote fails outright, odds sink into single digits, and BTC retests sub-$76K support. Watch the vote date closely; it is the only near-term catalyst that moves this needle materially.

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Kalshi Traders Turn Bearish on the CLARITY Act

The likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 has significantly declined. Prediction-market traders are increasingly betting that the landmark crypto regulation bill will have difficulty passing in the Senate.

According to the latest market data from Kalshi, there is currently a 91% probability that the Senate will hold a vote on the CLARITY Act before October 1. However, this does not indicate that the bill is likely to pass.

A critical challenge will occur on September 15, when senators are expected to vote on a procedural motion to advance the legislation. The bill requires 60 votes to overcome the cloture hurdle, making bipartisan support essential.

Kalshi’s pricing for the bill’s passage has dropped to approximately 22%, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment. Traders are increasingly worried about unresolved disagreements over stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, anti-money-laundering provisions, and restrictions on government officials’ crypto-related activities.

This makes September a crucial month for the CLARITY Act. A successful procedural vote could restore optimism and potentially lead to a significant repricing in crypto-related prediction markets. Conversely, failure to secure the necessary 60 votes could effectively push comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation into 2027.

For now, traders on Kalshi indicate that a Senate vote is highly likely, but passage remains a long shot.

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This is not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile and speculative. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.

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