Michaël van de Poppe outlines three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory., 2026/04/14 11:40:42

The founder of the consulting firm MN Trading and analyst Michael van de Poppe has outlined three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s price movement in the coming weeks.

The first scenario anticipates a rapid breakout from the current range, reaching the $80,000 mark. According to the analyst, the resistance level at $74,000 has been tested three times and has weakened with each attempt, increasing the likelihood of a breakout. He also noted the rising political tensions surrounding Iran, which has led to Bitcoin being increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset. He estimates the probability of this scenario at 35%.

Van de Poppe considers the second scenario to be the most probable — a short-term correction to the $64,000–66,000 range, followed by a recovery. He drew a parallel to the situation in February when the market quickly rebounded from a decline. The likelihood of this scenario is around 45%.

The third scenario involves a deeper decline to $52,000–54,000 if the $64,000–66,000 range fails to hold as support. This outcome could occur amid heightened political risks or panic in the markets. The analyst assesses the probability of this scenario at 20%.

Given the current market conditions, the baseline scenario remains a correction followed by a rise to $80,000. However, the analyst also considers the possibility of a more significant upward movement without a pullback, while viewing a substantial decline as the least likely outcome.

Previously, Nic Puckrin, the founder of the analytical firm Coin Bureau, stated that Bitcoin’s recovery remains unstable and may become more sustainable as the year progresses.