[LIVE] Bitcoin Price Update: September PCE Inflation Reaches 2.8% as Anticipated—Is a Fed Rate Cut Possible in December?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has published the long-awaited September PCE inflation figures, revealing a headline PCE of 2.8% year-over-year, which aligns with expectations and represents an increase from 2.7% in August. Core PCE—the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation metric—rose to 2.8% from 2.9%, surpassing the anticipated 2.9%.

Bitcoin remained stable around $92,000 following the announcement, as the consistent data kept the odds of a rate cut in December at 86% for the Fed’s FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

The decrease in core PCE is positive for policymakers with a dovish stance, although the rise in the headline figure indicates that inflation continues to exceed the Fed’s 2% target.

In light of today’s unexpectedly strong jobless claims (191K compared to the 219K forecast), the Fed is confronted with mixed signals—gradually cooling inflation alongside surprising strength in employment.

Alternative data provider Truflation highlighted the disparity between the delayed official September data and present circumstances, reporting their real-time PCE at just 2.13% and core PCE at 2.6%, utilizing “millions of price data points from actual purchases, rather than surveyed prices.”

BEA just released their September (!) PCE data.
September PCE: 2.8% (previous 2.7%, expected 2.8%)
September Core PCE: 2.8% (previous 2.9%, expected 2.9%)
Meanwhile, Truflation has been reporting daily PCE data using independent data sources:
Truflation PCE today: 2.13%
… pic.twitter.com/aGGWfitx6i

— Truflation (@truflation) December 5, 2025

This discrepancy underscores the challenge for Fed Chair Powell—September’s data is already two months old, collected prior to the government shutdown, and may not accurately represent current economic realities.

Markets are currently assessing whether the improvement in core inflation (2.8% versus 2.9%) along with the conclusion of quantitative tightening on December 1 warrants a rate cut, or if today’s strong labor market data (191K jobless claims, the lowest since 2022) calls for a more cautious approach.

Bitcoin’s subdued response indicates that crypto traders are adopting a wait-and-see strategy as they approach next week’s blackout period ahead of the December 9-10 Fed meeting.

The technical analysis reveals resistance at $93,000 and a descending trendline that has limited rallies since November 11, with support remaining at $92,000.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.1 trillion as traders evaluate whether the combination of easing core inflation and robust employment creates an ideal scenario for risk assets, or if the Fed interprets the resilient labor market as a reason to refrain from easing.

With core PCE trending positively but still 80 basis points above the target, the likelihood of a rate cut in December remains possible but not assured—particularly if policymakers perceive today’s 191K jobless claims as an indication that the economy does not require further stimulus.

PCE Inflation Aligns with Expectations: Fed Receives Mixed Signals

The post [LIVE] Bitcoin Price Watch: September PCE Inflation Reaches 2.8% as Anticipated—Will Fed Reduce Rates in December? appeared first on Cryptonews.