Kamala Harris’ Chances of Election Improve on Polymarket Following Tuesday Night Debate

Vice President Kamala Harris’ prospects for the forthcoming U.S. presidential election have increased on Polymarket following her debate with former President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening.

Currently, Harris and Trump are in a deadlock, each possessing a 49% likelihood of winning on Polymarket’s $860 million prediction market.

The debate on Tuesday, the first and probably the only one between Harris and Trump prior to the November election, addressed significant national topics such as the conflict in Gaza and abortion rights.

Crypto Absent from Debate

Significantly, cryptocurrency was not included in the discussion topics, despite rising interest in its potential regulation.

Nonetheless, bettors on Polymarket provided Harris with a notable edge, with 94% believing she emerged victorious in the debate, although official polling results have yet to be published.

In the 24 hours preceding the debate, Harris’ odds on Polymarket increased from 46% to 49%, while Trump’s decreased from 52% to 49%.

Harris is now tied with Trump.
His odds have decreased by 3% since the debate commenced. pic.twitter.com/hmFDNqdDgW

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 11, 2024

Trump has been vocal about his backing of the cryptocurrency industry, while Harris, although engaging with the sector, has not yet established a clear position on the issue.

Bitcoin’s value reflected the ongoing debate, showing a minor fluctuation.

In the hours leading up to the event, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $58,000, but as the debate unfolded, it fell to approximately $56,700.

It has since stabilized at $56,797.

Justin d’Anethan, head of APAC business development at crypto market maker Keyrock, noted that the crypto market did not show significant reactions to the debate.

He remarked that Bitcoin acted like a typical risk asset, moving in tandem with tech stocks and other equities.

D’Anethan added that Bitcoin is looking for a more definitive catalyst, such as a change in Federal Reserve policy or a major political event, to instigate a notable price shift.

Meanwhile, PolitiFi tokens associated with Trump and Harris experienced immediate responses during the debate.

The Trump-linked token Super Trump (STRUMP), with a market capitalization of $13.8 million, fell by 6.8%, while Kamala Horris (KAMA) decreased by 5.7%, according to data from CoinGecko.

MAGA (TRUMP) also experienced a slight decline of 0.2%.

Bloomberg to Integrate Polymarket Election Odds into Terminal

Earlier this month, leading financial data and news service provider Bloomberg LP announced its intention to integrate election odds data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket into its widely utilized Terminal.

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market operating on the Polygon network, has emerged as a key platform for monitoring real-time election odds.

The platform enables users to wager on a variety of event outcomes, utilizing transparent on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts.

According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket’s trading volume for August approached $450 million, with nearly $760 million wagered on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election as of late August.

Last month, five United States Senators and three House representatives advocated for a prohibition on betting activities related to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The bipartisan group includes notable figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.

The group expressed concerns regarding the potential for billionaires to use substantial bets to influence election results, thereby undermining public confidence in the democratic process.

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