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Michael Burry, the founder of Scion Asset Management and the hedge fund manager known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has posted a Bitcoin chart on X that compares the current downturn to the crash of 2021–22, suggesting that BTC might decline to the low $50,000s before establishing a stable bottom.
Key Takeaways:
– Burry superimposed Bitcoin’s current decline from $126,000 to $70,000 onto the trajectory of the 2021–22 bear market, indicating a potential drop towards the low $50,000s.
– However, not everyone is convinced — critics argue that a single historical comparison does not constitute a reliable pattern.
– BTC has lost approximately 40% since reaching its all-time high in October and is currently around $72,000, impacted by significant ETF redemptions and a general risk-averse sentiment.
In a post shared early Thursday, Burry pointed out the parallels between BTC’s fall from its October peak of $126,000 to about $70,000 and the decline from late 2021 to mid-2022, during which Bitcoin dropped from roughly $35,000 to below $20,000.
$BTC Patterns pic.twitter.com/Ax595mNXrD
— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) February 4, 2026
When applied to current price levels, the trajectory from the previous cycle suggests a risk towards the low $50,000s.
Burry did not specify a clear price target, but the visual comparison has reignited discussions about whether Bitcoin is following a historical pattern.
This post follows a Substack article published on Monday, where Burry cautioned that Bitcoin’s downturn could initiate a self-perpetuating “death spiral” for corporate holders and mining companies.
“There is no organic use case reason for Bitcoin to slow or stop its descent,” Burry stated in the Substack article.
Analysts Question Validity of a Single-Cycle Comparison
Not all market participants are persuaded. Trading firm GSR encapsulated the prevailing skepticism by questioning, “Is it a pattern if it happened once?”
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The critique extends beyond mere semantics. During the 2021–22 period, Bitcoin’s decline coincided with aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the collapses of Terra and FTX, and a market still largely influenced by retail leverage.
The current landscape appears significantly different — spot Bitcoin ETFs have altered capital flows, institutional investors now hold a larger market share, and the primary macro risks have shifted from rate hikes to broader volatility across equities, commodities, and AI-related expenditures.
Nonetheless, Burry’s warning comes at a delicate time. Bitcoin dipped below $71,000 on Wednesday before rebounding, extending a week of volatile trading that has brought the cryptocurrency to levels not observed since November 2024.
Burry’s Broader Bear Case Raises Stakes for Strategy and Miners
Burry’s chart comparison contributes to a wider bearish thesis he articulated earlier this week. In the Monday Substack article, he cautioned that a further 10% drop in BTC could leave Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 713,502 BTC on its balance sheet, facing billions in losses and effectively excluded from capital markets.
“Sickening scenarios have now come within reach,” Burry remarked.
He also warned that a decline to $50,000 could drive mining companies towards bankruptcy and lead to tokenized metals futures “collapsing into a black hole with no buyer.”
Burry estimated that around $1 billion in precious metals were liquidated at the end of January due to falling crypto prices, a situation he referred to as a “collateral death spiral.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF assets have fallen below $100 billion for the first time since April 2025, and the average ETF investor is now at a loss, with the average cost basis around $87,830 per coin.
Counterpoints Emerge as Some See Bottom Forming
Not everyone aligns with Burry’s perspective. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan echoed sentiments on the Wolf of All Streets podcast, describing the current situation as “peak end-of-winter behavior.”
“Winters die in exhaustion,” Hougan stated. “There’s no news that ever matters in a bear market.”
Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor has also countered concerns, stressing that the firm faces no margin calls and does not anticipate being compelled to sell Bitcoin.
Burry’s track record lends credibility to his warnings, although his predictions have not always materialized within expected timelines. His approach typically focuses on shifts in positioning and market psychology rather than precise price forecasts — a distinction that may be significant as discussions about Bitcoin’s next move continue to escalate.
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