Glassnode’s James Check Cautions That Bitcoin Treasury Surge May Be Temporary

James Check, the lead analyst at Glassnode, has expressed apprehensions regarding the sustainability of the corporate Bitcoin treasury approach, suggesting that the easy profits may already be behind for newcomers as the market evolves.

Key Takeaways:

• James Check from Glassnode cautions that the Bitcoin treasury strategy may have limited potential remaining.
• Early adopters like Michael Saylor’s Strategy are in a strong position.
• Conversely, new treasury firms may find it challenging to stand out and maintain premiums.

“I believe the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a significantly shorter lifespan than many anticipate,” Check stated in a post on X on Friday, warning that numerous recent entrants into Bitcoin reserves might find it difficult to maintain interest or validate premiums.

“For many newcomers, it could already be finished,” he added.

Established Bitcoin Treasuries Flourish as New Entrants Encounter Challenges

Check contended that while early players like Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which holds nearly 600,000 BTC, have solidified their advantage, new treasury firms are facing a more challenging path.

“No one is interested in the 50th Treasury company,” he remarked, cautioning that investors are increasingly looking for distinct differentiation rather than another entity merely adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet.

“I think we are nearing the ‘show me’ phase, where it will become progressively harder for random company X to maintain a premium and establish itself without a significant niche,” Check stated.

My belief is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect, and for many new entrants, it could already be over.
It’s not about a measuring contest.
It’s about how serious & sustainable your product & strategy is to maintain the accumulation.

— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) July 4, 2025

Despite Bitcoin’s recent surge to within 4% of its all-time high, Check indicated that the increasing number of Bitcoin treasury firms poses a risk of market saturation.

Data from BitcoinTreasuries reveals that at least 21 new entities have added BTC holdings in just the past month.

Check emphasized that while speculative retail investors may be drawn to these newcomers, they do not “have infinite money” to support numerous imitators pursuing the same strategy.

He pointed out that larger, established firms like Strategy have more time to validate their thesis compared to those entering later.

Reinforcing his concerns, Udi Wizardheimer, co-founder of Taproot Wizards, noted that many startups entering the Bitcoin treasury sector seem to be driven by short-term gains rather than long-term commitment.

“Many of the individuals raising funds simply see easy money and lack a clear understanding of their actions,” Wizardheimer asserted.

He added that weaker players might eventually be acquired at a discount by stronger firms, although he believes the trend could still experience “a few more legs.”

No one is interested in the 50th Treasury company.
I think we’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche.
Retail speculators buy startup TCos, and they don’t have…

— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) July 4, 2025

Concerns Mount Regarding the Long-Term Feasibility of Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

Doubts about the viability of the Bitcoin treasury trend are increasing.

Breed, a venture capital firm, cautioned in a report dated June 29 that only a handful of Bitcoin treasury companies are likely to endure over the long term without entering a “death spiral” as their stock prices align with the value of their BTC holdings.

This warning aligns with recent remarks from Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, who has expressed concerns regarding the Bitcoin treasury strategies employed by certain publicly traded firms.

Sigel specifically highlighted the use of at-the-market (ATM) share issuance programs, arguing that these can become dilutive if a company’s stock price approaches its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).

Additionally, the New York law firm Pomerantz LLP has initiated a class action lawsuit against Michael Saylor’s Strategy, alleging that the Bitcoin-focused firm misled investors about the profitability and risks associated with its crypto investment strategy.

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