Polymarket Prices 96% Chance of Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026

Polymarket is pricing in a 95.9% probability, or approximately 96%, that the Federal Reserve will deliver zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. As prediction markets and analysts continue to anticipate at least one additional rate hike, this figure serves as a strong market signal regarding cuts, though it is not an official Fed forecast. It leaves open the question of whether another increase will occur in October, December, or not at all.

The Polymarket contract regarding 2026 Fed cuts measures the number of reductions the central bank delivers during the calendar year. As of the October 6 data retrieval, the event showed $53.9 million in total volume and $4.18 million in liquidity. These figures describe activity within the contract and do not reflect the depth of Bitcoin liquidity or a forecast of crypto flows.

SOURCE: Polymarket

Fed Rate Cut Prediction Odds: September’s Hike Resets the Policy Path

The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points in September, bringing it to 3.75%-4.00%, following a cut in December 2025 that had lowered it to 3.50%-3.75%. The September dot plot indicated a median federal funds rate of 4.1% by year-end, with most participants anticipating at least one further increase.

The primary market description cites solid economic expansion, unemployment rates around 4.1%-4.2%, and core inflation near 3.4% as reasons why a restrictive stance remains plausible. These conditions help explain why a return to rate cuts is priced as unlikely, but they do not make another hike inevitable.

Softer inflation readings have complicated the timing. Reuters reported that August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3.4% year over year, coming in below the 3.7% estimate in economist polls.

Following that data, Goldman Sachs and several other brokerages shifted their expected next 25-basis-point hike from October toward December. The PCE reading is also significant for risk assets because easing inflation that does not prompt cuts can still leave real rates restrictive.

What the 96% Price Proves and What It Does Not

SOURCE: CMEGroup

The zero-cut price had slipped by 0.1 percentage points over a 24-hour period. The event remained open and was scheduled to close on January 1, 2027, meaning these readings reflect traders’ risk-taking rather than a settled outcome or a poll of market participants.

Crucially, a zero-cut contract is not a hike contract. It counts reductions; therefore, the Fed could hold rates through year-end, and the outcome could still resolve as zero cuts. A further increase would also leave the number of cuts at zero. This distinction explains how Polymarket’s no-cut pricing can coexist with brokerage forecasts that mostly call for one additional quarter-point hike.

The market’s strongest conclusion is that traders see little room for easing in 2026, not that they agree on the terminal rate or the next meeting’s decision. For crypto, this keeps the policy backdrop restrictive: higher rates can weigh on risk appetite and financing conditions, but the contract alone does not establish a direction or magnitude for Bitcoin’s next move.

Late-October and December Decisions Remain the Big Tests

Goldman saw the plunge in market odds, pushes back its next Fed rate forecast from October to December and sees “a strong chance that the FOMC will ultimately conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary.”
“Based on today’s inflation report, we now expect 3.0% growth for… https://t.co/NYB2xkFMas

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

The October and December meetings, along with upcoming inflation and labor market reports, are identified as the next key tests in the market description. Reuters reported that CME FedWatch had placed the odds of an October hike near 38%, down from almost 71% a week earlier, illustrating how quickly expectations can shift as data arrives.

A hold in October would leave December as the central decision point for brokerages forecasting another increase. An October hike would reinforce the restrictive path, while cooler inflation and weaker labor readings could reduce the case for a second move without reopening the case for a cut.

The market assigns near-total weight to no cuts, yet the path to that outcome remains sensitive to data and meeting-by-meeting decisions. Traders tracking the Federal Reserve should treat the Polymarket price as a probability for one defined calendar-year outcome, not as a precise timetable for policy or a direct signal of Bitcoin liquidity.

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