Experts Caution That the Most Significant Altseason Since 2017 Is Approaching

With historical, technical, and fundamental elements signaling a bullish trend, analysts are convinced that the stage has been set for an upcoming altseason, with some suggesting it could be the “largest bull run for altcoins since 2017.”

In a post on X dated September 23rd, the pseudonymous analyst Moustache noted that TOTAL2, which represents the total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin, is on the verge of breaking out from a descending broadening wedge that has persisted for the last six months.

TOTAL2 1W chart, descending broadening wedge pattern. Source: Moustache.

Moustache indicated that the positive outlook for altcoins is reinforced by the RSI moving out of its downward trend due to recent buying activity, which is leading to a forthcoming bullish crossover from the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD).

He further highlighted that this configuration could result in “a significant candle like we haven’t witnessed in years,” indicating a major bullish shift in the altcoin market.

#Altcoins
I believe we are on the brink of the largest bull run for Altcoins since 2017.
All our targets seem too conservative in my opinion.
Charts and on-chain analysis supporting this will be shared this week.

— 𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 (@el_crypto_prof) September 23, 2024

Amid this recent buying momentum, Bitcoin’s dominance has decreased to 57.48%, reflecting a 0.71% drop over the past week, as per TradingView data.

Analysts have interpreted this notable decline as an indication that Bitcoin’s dominance may be reaching its peak. Investors seem to be liquidating BTC and reallocating their funds into alternative coins, suggesting that “altcoins are likely the focus for the time being.”

The Perfect Storm: Fundamental Catalysts Favor an Altseason

While technical indicators imply an imminent breakout, it is the fundamental catalysts that will sustain a more extended altseason. Pseudonymous analyst Tracer articulated this viewpoint in a thread on X dated September 23rd, emphasizing several crucial factors.

Most significantly, the Federal Reserve’s choice to lower interest rates by 50 basis points has encouraged a more risk-tolerant approach among investors, prompting them to explore more speculative investments such as cryptocurrency as borrowing costs decrease.

Tracer also highlighted the expected release of $16 billion from FTX creditors between December 2024 and March 2025, which is anticipated to inject additional capital into the market.

Recent reports from 10x Research support this view, estimating that between $5 billion and $8 billion could flow back into the crypto sector, further boosting the rise of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Political developments have also significantly enhanced sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, with the forthcoming US election acting as a major catalyst for optimism.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s initial public endorsement of digital assets has amplified this bullish sentiment. In her recent remarks, she reiterated a commitment to supporting crypto and AI to promote innovation.

This endorsement, along with Donald Trump’s public backing of cryptocurrency, underscores a growing bipartisan support that is expected to generate considerable momentum in the cryptocurrency sector as the demand for regulatory clarity intensifies. Tracer summarized:

Everything indicates an imminent rise and altseason.

Altcoin Season Isn’t Here Yet, According to Metrics

With this developing bullish narrative surrounding altseason, analysts like Tracer predict a potential start as soon as 9 days from now.

However, it is not yet time for celebration, as the altcoin season index from Blockchain Center suggests that “it is not altcoin season.”

This index indicates that 75% of the top 50 coins must outperform Bitcoin over the previous season (90 days) for a technical altseason to be declared.

Currently, the index reveals that only 33% of the leading 50 altcoins have outperformed, a slight decline from its sharp increase to 46% last week.

Altcoin Season Index, not altcoin season. Source: Blockchain Center.

Thus, while optimism is high and catalysts are aligning, caution persists as the market awaits a more definitive shift in altcoin performance.

Meanwhile, we remain in an accumulation phase as we approach this pivotal moment, offering a valuable opportunity for investors to solidify their positions in the most promising altcoins leading into altseason.

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