Ethereum Scarcity Index Becomes Positive as ETH/USD Surpasses $2,000 Again

Ethereum has regained the $2,000 mark overnight with a slight increase of +0.6% as ETH USD continues to move sideways while the wider market seeks direction.

Nonetheless, behind the scenes on Binance, a crucial supply indicator has just registered a positive reading of 0.67. Although the price movement appears tentative, this signal implies that the order book is becoming less populated in favor of sellers.

SOURCE: CryptoQuant

The Scarcity Index, monitored by CryptoQuant analysts, assesses the variation of exchange reserves compared to historical averages. A positive reading signifies that the platform’s available supply is falling below typical levels, thereby diminishing the liquidity buffer for sell orders.

With a value of 0.67, the index does not indicate an immediate supply shock, but it does represent a clear structural change. Historically, similar shifts from negative to positive scarcity values have preceded recovery phases, as sell-side pressure diminishes against consistent accumulation.

SOURCE: TradingView

Ethereum Price Prediction: Can the Scarcity Signal Push ETH Back Above $2,200?

ETH is currently consolidating within a narrow range between $1,900 and $2,100. The asset remains well below its 50-day simple moving average of $2,278 and the 200-day average near $3,038.

This technical weakness indicates that while supply is decreasing, demand has not yet increased sufficiently to surpass overhead resistance.

If bulls can utilize the thinner order books to break above $2,150, the next significant resistance area lies between $2,200 and $2,400. A recovery of the $2,278 level would align the technical indicators with the bullish on-chain data.

Some analysts suggest that institutional investors are positioning for the long term, as Wall Street appears to be selecting Ethereum as a foundational element for future finance.

However, if the consolidation breaks to the downside, the scarcity signal will be negated by increased selling volume. A daily close below $1,900 would open the possibility for a retest of the $1,800 support level.

FOUR YEARS OF ETHEREUM CONSOLIDATION IS ENDING.
Last time ETH broke out of a multi-year base: 54x.
The red box is closing.
The green box is opening.
Above $2.5K: breakout confirmed.
Below $1.9K: one final shakeout before the move.
Most people endured 4 years of pain.
Few… pic.twitter.com/COdtwEnlON

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 11, 2026

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What Traders Are Watching Next for ETH USD

The key to confirming the 0.67 scarcity reading is volume. Traders are looking for an increase in spot buying activity amid the reduced supply. Without volume, low liquidity simply results in choppy price action.

According to CoinGlass data, institutional flows also remain unpredictable, with BlackRock starting the week by selling over 28,000 ETH ($55M). However, the last two days have concluded positively, with nearly +$70M in inflows recorded on March 10 and 11.

ETF data must sustain the positive momentum observed in recent days to bolster the spot market recovery and any potential ETH USD movement toward $2,200 and beyond.

In addition to ETFs, Digital Asset Treasury firms like Bitmine, led by Tom Lee, continue to acquire ETH USD, contributing to the scarcity as the company has now secured over 3M ETH, amounting to approximately $6Bn at current prices.

Investors are keeping an eye on regulatory developments, such as the recent news that Binance is suing the WSJ over defamation claims, which could influence user sentiment and flow dynamics on the platform.

If the Scarcity Index rises above 1.0 while the price remains at $2,000, the likelihood of a supply-shock rally increases considerably.

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