Ethereum Price Forecast: $536 Million in BTC ETF Withdrawals Prompt ETH Liquidity Assessment – Will $3,800 Support Remain Intact?

Ethereum is striving to maintain its position above $3,984, even as significant spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $536 million in net outflows on October 16, marking one of the largest single-day withdrawals since mid-2025. This sell-off indicated a change in institutional sentiment, momentarily withdrawing liquidity from both BTC and ETH markets.

As reported by Wu Blockchain, none of the twelve Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows on that day. Conversely, spot Ethereum ETFs faced $56.88 million in outflows, although BlackRock’s ETHA did see some modest net inflows.

This contrast between the two underscores the varied interest in digital asset exposure, as traders evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of entering the market amid current volatility versus adopting a long-term holding strategy through both challenging and favorable periods.

On October 16 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net outflow of $536 million, with none of the twelve ETFs reporting net inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs had a total net outflow of $56.88 million, with only BlackRock’s ETHA showing a net inflow. https://t.co/Hj2Gs48E6C pic.twitter.com/iTOhEBRS34

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 17, 2025

Market analysts caution that if these ETF outflows persist, particularly if they are substantial, liquidity in the cryptocurrency markets could become constrained. This scenario would be unfavorable. Conversely, Ethereum’s ability to remain above its critical support levels is a positive indication that holders still possess confidence in the asset and are not yet in a state of panic.

Ethereum Defends Key Support Zone

In spite of the pressure from ETFs, Ethereum continues to honor its $3,930–$3,950 support range, which has served as a robust defense since early October. The price recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle, a consolidation pattern that frequently precedes directional movements.

A decisive close above both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA confirms a resurgence of bullish momentum. The breakout candle also formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating that buying strength is surpassing previous weakness.

Meanwhile, the RSI reading at 68 suggests a healthy recovery without entering overbought territory, allowing for potential further gains. The series of higher lows on the two-hour chart reinforces ETH’s underlying bullish structure, demonstrating accumulation from technical buyers.

Ethereum Technical Outlook: Path Toward $4,300

If Ethereum can maintain its position above $3,930, the next notable resistance level is around $4,093. From that point, it may attempt another ascent toward $4,299. Should it surpass that level, it could lead to a retest of $4,554 and complete a full measurement of the recent consolidation range.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

However, if it fails to maintain this level, ETH could decline to $3,713 or even $3,510 if the market experiences significant downward pressure.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: $3,930 / $3,713 / $3,510
• Resistance: $4,093 / $4,299 / $4,554

Trade Setup and Outlook

For those looking to secure a quick profit, a long position above $3,950 with a stop-loss at $3,710 appears to be a solid strategy, with upside targets ranging between $4,299 and $4,554 if momentum continues.

Looking forward, Ethereum’s capacity to maintain its position while ETFs experience cash outflows may influence the direction of the crypto market. If $3,800 can hold steady, ETH could reclaim its dominance among altcoins as capital rotation accelerates and market sentiment shifts towards recovery.

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