Elon Musk’s X and Polymarket Agreement Advances Onchain Prediction Markets into Worldwide Social Platforms

On early Friday, X announced that the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket will act as its official prediction-market partner, creating a synergy between real-time betting probabilities and the continuous stream of posts on X.

This agreement follows Polymarket’s processing of over US$8 billion in bets last year, despite restricting U.S. users, and aligns with Elon Musk’s long-held view that crowd predictions frequently outperform conventional polls.

X-Polymarket collaboration integrates prediction markets into social media
The prominent prediction market platform Polymarket has revealed a partnership (https://t.co/JUzBaMx9tL) with Elon Musk’s company xAI, which, in addition to AI development, also supports the social network X.… pic.twitter.com/DkE09LB388

— Traders Union (@TradersUnion_TU) June 6, 2025

Kalshi Misstep Leaves X Seeking a Prediction-Market Partner

X’s initial venture into event-wagering data began—and concluded—with Kalshi. In late May, the regulated U.S. exchange released a statement announcing a partnership with Musk’s platform. Bloomberg reported that within hours, the announcement was removed, and Kalshi confirmed that the agreement had been “rolled back.”

This reversal suggested potential conflicts between Kalshi’s strictly regulated framework and X’s global aspirations.

Key factors that disrupted the original plan:

• Kalshi’s announcement surprised industry watchers, arriving without the typical social media buzz from Musk or X’s corporate accounts.
• Compliance challenges were significant: Kalshi’s contracts necessitate oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a structure that would have restricted the range of markets visible on X.
• By the end of the day, both companies had removed mentions of the partnership, indicating a definitive separation rather than a postponement.

Polymarket Steps In: A More Suitable Match for Elon Musk’s X Vision

Shortly thereafter, X pivoted towards the cryptocurrency sector, designating Polymarket as its official prediction-market partner.

This transition aligned with Musk’s preference for decentralized solutions that can expand globally without the limitations of traditional brokerage systems. In contrast to Kalshi, Polymarket operates on blockchain technology and primarily serves non-U.S. bettors, alleviating many of the jurisdictional issues that hindered the previous effort.

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s CEO, celebrated the announcement with an enthusiastic post.

Proud to announce @Polymarket’s partnership with @X and @xai as their Official Prediction Market Partner. The two leading truth-seeking applications on the internet are stronger together.
Welcome to News 2.0.
Stay tuned https://t.co/P6Xd7yKlmt

— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) June 6, 2025

The official X account echoed this sentiment a few hours later. Interestingly, Musk himself remained silent, allowing the companies’ statements to convey the message, a departure from his usual proactive style but indicative of confidence in the market-driven product.

Polymarket Odds, Prominently Featured on X

X intends to integrate Polymarket probabilities directly into the social feed, transforming dynamic discussions into a live dashboard of public sentiment. Instead of navigating to a separate site, users will encounter a small odds widget positioned beneath trending posts, updating in real time.

When a trending topic (such as an election, a sports final, or a Federal Reserve rate decision) gains traction on the timeline, the overlay will display the latest figures from the cryptocurrency prediction market and provide a link to the full contract on Polymarket for users in non-restricted jurisdictions.

What users can anticipate at launch:

• A compact probability bar appearing under tweets that correspond with an active Polymarket contract.
• Hovering or tapping will reveal a brief description, current implied odds, and 24-hour changes.
• A one-click transition to the Polymarket interface for more detailed charts (geofenced for U.S. users).
• The ability to follow a contract, adding real-time alerts to the X notification panel.

Grok Transforms Raw Data Into Understandable Insights

X will also utilize X’s AI Grok to interpret fluctuations in the market.

Grok will analyze new posts, on-chain trading patterns, and historical data to generate concise summaries that assist readers in comprehending why a contract moved without having to sift through numerous comments: “Odds for a June rate hike slipped three points after Powell’s press conference,” for example.

Key components in the explanatory framework:

• Context ranking: Grok displays the top three tweets influencing a contract’s change.
• Sentiment link-out: A quick tap opens an AI-generated timeline of pertinent discussions and charts.
• Market health check: Color-coded indicators signal thin liquidity or large trades that may distort probabilities.
• Future expansion: X engineers suggest that verified experts may be allowed to post rebuttals or alternative interpretations, adding editorial balance without compromising the data-first approach.

X and Polymarket: Rethinking Market Assessment

By integrating Polymarket’s live probabilities throughout the timeline, X aims to make data-driven foresight as routine as scrolling through a feed. If the initiative proves successful, users may soon evaluate a politician’s promise or a company’s earnings hint against an instantly updated crowd forecast.

However, the implications extend beyond a sophisticated new widget.

X must navigate strict regulatory boundaries and ethical gray areas, demonstrating its ability to highlight prediction data without transforming into an unlicensed betting platform or amplifying manipulative whale trades. Whether the platform successfully manages this balance will determine if this partnership becomes a staple of daily conversation or a cautionary example.

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