Crypto Market Shifts from ‘Greed’ to ‘Fear’ in One Day – Is Another Decline Ahead?

The crypto Fear and Greed Index fell sharply from 64 (Greed) to 27 (Fear) within a day after President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, leading CoinGlass to label it as “the largest liquidation event in crypto history.”

More than 1.66 million traders faced liquidation, with total losses surpassing $19.33 billion; however, some estimates suggest actual losses could exceed $30 billion, as Binance reports only one liquidation order per second.

Source: Alternative[dot]me

Tariff Shock Erases $1 Trillion in Three-Hour Cascade

Bitcoin plummeted from above $122,000 to briefly below $102,000, erasing all gains made since August, while Ethereum dropped from $4,783 to $3,400 before making a recovery.

The total global crypto market capitalization decreased by over 9% in 24 hours to $3.8 trillion, with around $1 trillion lost in just three hours.

More than $7 billion in positions were liquidated in under an hour of trading on Friday alone.

Long positions bore the brunt of the losses, amounting to $16.83 billion compared to $2.49 billion from shorts.

Bitcoin led the liquidations at $5.38 billion, followed by Ethereum at $4.43 billion, Solana at $2.01 billion, and XRP at $708 million.

Hyperliquid recorded the largest single liquidation, an ETH–USDT position valued at $203.36 million.

The exchange accounted for $10.3 billion or approximately 53% of all liquidations, followed by Bybit with $4.65 billion, Binance at $2.39 billion, and OKX at $1.21 billion.

The $10B liquidation figure circulating is inaccurate; the true number is likely much higher, estimated between $30B–$40B+.
On Hyperliquid alone, nearly $7B was liquidated. Here’s the complete breakdown for those interested:
Total liquidations since 20:45 UTC:
– Total Value:…

— MLM (@mlmabc) October 11, 2025

This collapse significantly surpassed previous record events, including the March 2020 COVID crash that resulted in $1.2 billion in liquidations and the November 2022 FTX collapse with $1.6 billion.

Friday’s incident was roughly 20 times larger than the COVID crash, with Brian Strugats of Multicoin Capital noting that attention now shifts to “counterparty exposure and whether this triggers broader market contagion.”

October’s Historical Strength Faces Unprecedented Test

Yesterday, Economist Timothy Peterson pointed out that declines exceeding 5% in October are “exceedingly rare,” having occurred only four times in the past decade during October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021.

After each of these previous declines, Bitcoin rebounded by 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019, with only 2021 experiencing a further 3% drop.

October is recognized as Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average since 2013, yielding average returns of 20.10%, second only to November’s 46.02% average gain according to CoinGlass data.

Declines of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare. This has occurred only 4 times in the past 10 years.
Oct 24 2017
Oct 11 2018
Oct 23 2019
Oct 21 2021
What followed? 7 days later Bitcoin was
2017: up 16%
2018: up 4%
2019: up 21%
2021: down -3% pic.twitter.com/mbFs19RbwL

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 10, 2025

If historical patterns hold and Bitcoin replicates its strongest October rebound of 21% from 2019, a similar rise from Friday’s low of $102,000 would position the cryptocurrency around $124,000 within a week.

However, Trump’s tariff announcement set for November 1 in response to Beijing’s export restrictions on rare earth elements introduces ongoing policy uncertainty.

The president later suggested he might reverse tariffs if China alters its approach before the deadline, potentially initiating a short-term market recovery, although liquidation losses remain locked in.

According to Bloomberg, Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, identified $100,000 as Bitcoin’s next significant support level, below which “would signal the end of the past three-year bull cycle.”

Bitcoin options markets reflected this sentiment, with the highest number of put strikes at $110,000 and the next highest at $100,000, based on Deribit data.

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts Split on Whether Liquidation Marks Bottom or More Pain Ahead

Jan3 founder Samson Mow maintained a positive outlook, stating “there are still 21 days left in Uptober.”

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe referred to the event as “the bottom of the current cycle,” likening it to the COVID-19 crash that marked the low of the previous cycle.

The Bitcoin Libertarian took a longer-term perspective, suggesting that “in a few years, Bitcoin will crash from $1M to $0.8M in a few hours.”

David Jeong, CEO at Tread.fi, described in the Bloomberg report that the market is undergoing a “black swan event,” indicating that many institutions likely did not anticipate this level of volatility.

Similarly, Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, stated that the downturn was “sparked by US-China tariff fears but fueled by institutional over-leverage,” adding that crypto’s macro connections are now evident.

The Fear and Greed Index reading of 27 contrasts with 64 yesterday, 71 last week, and 54 last month, marking one of the swiftest sentiment reversals in crypto history, with Bitcoin also reaching a six-month low within hours.

Technical Analysis: Critical Support Tests for BTC and ETH

BTC is currently trading around $111,522 after rebounding from the $102,000 low.

Immediate support is identified at $110,000 to $113,000, with the $113,500 level recognized as crucial for initiating a relief rally.

$BTC dropped to $102,000 level and nearly brought down the entire market.
Nearly $20,000,000,000 in long positions were liquidated, marking the highest ever in crypto history.
Currently, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $113,500 level, and if successful, a relief rally could follow. pic.twitter.com/F0UPgeTep2

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 11, 2025

Resistance levels above current prices are at $117,933, $124,475, and the recent high around $126,000.

The $20 billion liquidation has cleared excessive leverage, potentially alleviating selling pressure, although the sustainability of any rebound relies on fundamental improvements.

Volume characteristics do not indicate strong conviction in either direction.

ETH is trading at $3,833 after testing $3,400, with immediate resistance at the $4,000 psychological level necessary for upward momentum.

Support zones are located around $3,600 to $3,800, with a failure to reclaim $4,000 likely leading to retests of these levels.

Higher resistance is positioned at $4,080, $4,265, and $4,783. RSI indicators have reached oversold levels historically linked with reversals, although these can remain depressed during genuine bear markets.

Both assets face significant uncertainty following the liquidation event.

Bitcoin must reclaim and maintain levels above $113,500 to validate recovery scenarios toward $117,000-$120,000, while failure would likely lead to retesting $102,000 or potentially $95,000-$100,000.

Ethereum needs to sustain trading above $4,000 to trigger momentum toward $4,200-$4,500, with a breakdown risking moves toward $3,600-$3,800.

The clearing of leveraged positions alleviates immediate selling pressure, though the unresolved tariff situation and potential for further volatility suggest that consolidation between current levels and recent lows remains the most likely near-term outcome before directional clarity is achieved.

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