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Bloomberg Intelligence anticipates that Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue may increase sevenfold from its current annual run rate of $1.35 billion.
Analysts highlight a fundamental transformation where stablecoins evolve from being merely collateral for crypto trading to serving as a primary mechanism for mainstream global payments.
Key Takeaways
- Last year, Coinbase earned around $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue, representing 19% of its overall income.
- Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts a potential sevenfold increase in this amount as regulatory frameworks promote payment adoption.
- The growth is contingent upon the enacted GENIUS Act, merchant integration through Stripe, and increased activity on the Base network.
Why Bloomberg Predicts a Sevenfold Increase in Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue
Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, including Paul Gulberg, contend that the market is undervaluing the utility phase of stablecoins.
Although Coinbase reported $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue for 2025, which constitutes about 19% of its total revenue, Bloomberg’s models indicate that this figure serves merely as a baseline.
This projection comes despite Coinbase reporting a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025. The exchange’s revenue-sharing agreement with Circle, the issuer of USDC, remains a positive aspect, generating $364 million in the fourth quarter alone.
Bloomberg’s sevenfold increase assumes that as interest rates stabilize, the rapid pace of payment transactions will surpass interest income as the main source of revenue.
This perspective aligns with broader market data indicating stablecoin transaction volumes reaching $33 trillion in 2025.
With USDC comprising $18.3 trillion of that total, the asset has begun to separate from pure crypto trading volumes.
The scale is significant enough that the traditional finance sector can no longer overlook the potential for fee generation.
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How the GENIUS Act Is Accelerating Stablecoin Mainstream Adoption
The regulatory environment changed significantly with the enactment of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act in July 2025.
This legislation established a federal framework for payment stablecoins, providing the legal clarity necessary for substantial institutional involvement.
The Act explicitly prohibits issuers like Circle from offering interest to holders, a measure supported by the banking lobby to safeguard traditional deposits.
While the regulatory landscape for digital assets remains intricate, the GENIUS Act has effectively authorized stablecoins for commercial use.
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This clarity enables Coinbase to promote USDC settlements to Fortune 500 companies without the legal uncertainties that previously affected the sector.
Retail users on Coinbase have shown remarkable resilience during these market conditions, according to our data:
– They’ve been buying the dip – we’ve observed an increase in native units for retail users across BTC and ETH
– They have diamond hands – the vast majority of customers maintained native units…— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 15, 2026
Stripe Integration and Base Network Expansion Drive Payment Ambitions
Operational drivers are already in place, supporting the Bloomberg forecast. The integration of USDC into Stripe’s global payment infrastructure has reopened crypto acceptance for millions of merchants, creating a direct channel for transaction volume.
At the same time, Coinbase’s Layer-2 blockchain, the Base network, is reducing the entry barrier for micro-transactions.
Similar to other scaling solutions, the Base network minimizes gas fees to mere fractions of a cent, making dollar-denominated transfers feasible for everyday purchases like coffee.
High-throughput networks are essential, as demonstrated by the Bitcoin Lightning Network with its $1 billion monthly volume milestones; low-fee environments quickly attract payment liquidity.
By processing these payments through Base, Coinbase captures value in two ways: first through the underlying sequencer fees and again through its revenue share on the increasing supply of USDC needed to facilitate this commerce.
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What a 7x Revenue Jump Would Mean for the Stablecoin Market
If Bloomberg’s sevenfold scenario materializes, stablecoin revenue could potentially become Coinbase’s most significant business segment, eclipsing its fluctuating trading fees.
This transition would fundamentally alter the stock’s valuation, shifting it from a cyclical crypto exchange to a stable fintech payments processor. However, substantial risks persist.
The banking lobby is currently advocating for the CLARITY Act in the Senate to close loopholes that permit exchanges like Coinbase to offer rewards to customers.
Market structure is making significant progress, and I believe we’re heading toward a win-win-win outcome.
A win for the crypto industry.
A win for the banks.
And, most importantly, a win for the American consumer. pic.twitter.com/t0WM3XUZX4— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 18, 2026
If new regulations restrict these rewards, consumer adoption may decelerate.
Analysts at Monness Crespi maintain a sell rating, cautioning that optimistic forecasts largely overlook the political challenges facing stablecoin yields.
Thus, for Bloomberg’s sevenfold increase to be achievable, Coinbase must safeguard its rewards program while effectively transitioning user activity from holding USDC to utilizing it.
The post Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Hits $1.35B: Bloomberg Sees 7x Growth Potential appeared first on Cryptonews.
