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Coinbase’s earnings have just ended their winning streak, and not positively. Following eight consecutive profitable quarters, it reported a significant net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025. This is a substantial setback.
As cryptocurrency prices declined from their annual peaks, the exchange fell short of Wall Street’s revenue forecasts.
Revenue totaled $1.78 billion. While this figure seems substantial, it was below the anticipated $1.85 billion from analysts. The real issue lay in transaction revenue, which dropped 37% to $982.7 million.
This reflects the current state of trader engagement.
Key Takeaways
- Coinbase recorded a $667 million net loss, marking its first profit miss since Q3 2023.
- Revenue decreased 21.5% year-over-year to $1.78 billion, falling short of analyst predictions.
- Transaction fees fell 37% as retail traders exited the market.
- Shares (COIN) fell 7.9% during the day but recovered nearly 3% in after-hours trading.
Is the Bull Market Officially Over? How Coinbase Can Survive It
The $667 million loss signifies more than just a poor quarter; it indicates a deeper cycle weakness. A significant portion of this loss stemmed from unrealized losses on Coinbase’s own cryptocurrency holdings following the price drop from the October 2025 highs.
When Bitcoin declines from nearly $126,000 to the mid $60k range, no one escapes unscathed—not even the exchanges.
This level of volatility resembles the uncertainty experienced during the FTX fallout. Brian Armstrong continues to describe this downturn as psychological.
An overview of our Q4 and full year 2025 financial results.
With something extra to keep you focused. pic.twitter.com/LehRsH1Yjn— Coinbase
(@coinbase) February 12, 2026
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Retail traders are largely inactive. Transaction revenue, which is the fundamental driver of the business, has diminished as trading volume has evaporated.
Casual investors are remaining on the sidelines, which is the last scenario Coinbase needed.
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COIN Stock Resilience or Dead Cat Bounce?
Despite the disappointing earnings report, COIN stock actually rose 2.9% in after-hours trading, hovering around $145. This may seem surprising.
However, the stock had already declined 7.9% during the regular trading session. Traders likely anticipated the negative results before they were released.
Source: COINUSD / TradingView
Nonetheless, the outlook remains concerning. Subscription and services revenue was the only notable positive, increasing 13% to $727.4 million.
This helped mitigate the impact. However, management is already projecting lower figures for Q1 2026, expecting revenue to fall within the $550 to $630 million range. This is significant.
If even the so-called stable revenue begins to decline, the safety net could quickly diminish. Should that occur, a retest of the $139 level, close to the 52-week lows, would not be unexpected.
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