CLARITY Act Odds Drop to 25% as 60-Vote Senate Threshold Looms

On September 13, the odds on Kalshi that the CLARITY Act would become law in 2026 stood at 25%, down significantly from 82% in February. Simultaneously, a separate Kalshi market indicated a 94% probability that the U.S. Senate would hold a vote on the measure before October 1.

This disparity highlights two distinct legislative milestones: whether the Senate will initiate consideration of the bill versus whether it will successfully navigate the full legislative process and be signed into law. The passage of this bill is viewed as critical for the continuation of the current crypto bull market.

The Senate is scheduled to consider the measure on September 15. The Kalshi contract specifically tracks whether H.R. 3633, previously known as the CLARITY Act, will be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026. A vote on the motion to proceed represents an earlier procedural stage rather than final enactment.

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CLARITY Act Odds: A Vote Is Not the Same as a Law

More than $8 million has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering the bill’s enactment. The market’s implied probability fell from 82% in February to 16% on September 7.

Opinions on the Senate threshold vary. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed optimism in a CNBC interview regarding the likelihood of securing 60 votes, characterizing the negotiations as having delivered most of what both sides desired.

Other estimates cited in reports were more cautious. Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners lowered his estimate of the bill’s chances of passage from approximately 40% to 25%. Galaxy Digital’s estimate in August was even lower at 10%. These assessments, like the prediction-market prices, address the prospects for legislation that must move beyond a procedural Senate vote.

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Why 53 Republican Seats Isn’t Enough

September 15 is expected to center on a motion to proceed, a step that authorizes debate on the bill rather than passing it outright. Supporters require 60 favorable votes to overcome cloture. With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, at least seven Democrats would need to join them to secure passage.

The CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a vote of 294-134. The bill aims to establish a federal framework for the U.S. crypto market.

Under the proposal, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would receive exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would retain oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activities.

Three primary areas of disagreement remain. Several Democrats, including Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, are seeking a binding ban on public officials holding crypto assets. Traditional banks have resisted compromise regarding stablecoin rewards. Additionally, lawmakers remain divided over protections for decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and non-custodial software developers, with concerns that some language could create regulatory loopholes.

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What Happens After September 15

HUGE: Anonymous traders have bet over $1 MILLION that crypto’s biggest regulatory bill will FAIL, days before its make-or-break vote.
The CLARITY Act faces a Senate vote on September 15, but only to start debate, not to pass.
It needs 60 votes to proceed, yet Republicans hold… pic.twitter.com/g13s8TapC8

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) September 6, 2026

If the motion to proceed receives the necessary votes, the legislation would move into formal debate. The outstanding disagreements over ethics, stablecoin rewards, and protections for DeFi and non-custodial developers would still need to be addressed. If cloture is not cleared, the bill would not advance through that procedural step.

Legislation is not the only avenue for crypto policy. The SEC and CFTC are already pursuing work on crypto regulation without waiting for Congress.

Under SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the SEC has abandoned certain enforcement actions and outlined a taxonomy of crypto assets. The CFTC is simultaneously working on issues involving leveraged exchanges and DeFi.

Regulatory action can provide a framework outside of legislation, but agency rules can also be changed by a future administration. The September 15 proceeding remains important as a gauge of whether the CLARITY Act can begin Senate debate, while prediction markets highlight the separate question of whether it can become law in 2026.

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