Clarity Act Likelihood Increases Following White House Conversations on Stablecoins – Implications Explained

The likelihood of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) being enacted before June rose to 85% on Thursday following high-level discussions at the White House.

This increase aligns with extensive talks between officials from the Trump administration and leading figures in the crypto sector concerning stablecoin treasury yields.

Key Takeaways

• Prediction markets rise: Kalshi bettors briefly assessed the probability of the bill’s passage at 85% early Thursday, a notable increase from 39% on Wednesday.
• White House influence: Administration officials are advocating for a resolution on stablecoin yields by the end of February to facilitate legislative progress for Spring.
• Market structure change: If enacted, the act would clearly delineate oversight responsibilities between the CFTC for digital commodities and the SEC for securities.

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Why Is The Clarity Act Critical Now?

The Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) seeks to resolve the ongoing regulatory conflict between the CFTC and SEC.

With Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocating for a vote in the spring, time is of the essence. This domestic urgency reflects global trends, as even central bankers like Christine Lagarde are under pressure regarding the risks associated with digital currency implementation.

BREAKING: Treasury Secretary – Scott Bessent states that the Clarity Act will be finalized this spring!
He also indirectly mentions that @coinbase and @brian_armstrong are hindering crypto regulatory clarity.$RLUSD #XRP pic.twitter.com/yI09a2fD2g

— JackTheRippler © (@RippleXrpie) February 10, 2026

The White House has established a firm deadline, requiring a compromise on stablecoin yields, which are essentially interest payments on idle funds, by March 1.

This agreement is necessary to advance the broader market structure legislation that has been stalled since it passed the House last July.

Breaking Down the Negotiation Dynamics

Thursday’s private meeting featured legal experts from Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z Crypto, along with representatives from the banking sector.

While prediction markets remain unstable, the odds on Kalshi fell back to 46% after an initial morning surge, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong noted a “win-win-win” scenario developing for the industry, banks, and the U.S. retail crypto market, which continues to actively purchase crypto.

The current draft legislation, which passed the House with a bipartisan 294-134 vote according to congressional records, is now being reconciled with Senate concerns regarding DeFi safe harbors and the prevention of illicit finance.

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What Happens Next for Traders?

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse now estimates an 80% probability that the bill will be signed by April.

As the U.S. seeks regulatory clarity, Russia is tightening regulations on foreign exchanges to enhance state oversight of retail, underscoring the differing approaches in the global regulatory environment.

I’m sorry, but claiming that Bitcoin and Crypto have already factored in the Clarity Act is one of the least informed opinions I’ve encountered in a long time. Prices have been declining for months as approval approaches. The Clarity Act and the manipulation that has been occurring over the last…

— Tim Warren (@TimWarrenTrades) February 19, 2026

In the meantime, Bitcoin miner Bitdeer (BTN) saw its stock drop 18% after announcing a $300 million convertible note offering to finance AI expansion, demonstrating that regulatory optimism does not protect individual stocks from dilution risks.

Legal analysts anticipate that full implementation could extend into 2026 as agencies formulate specific regulations following passage.

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