Citigroup Has Reduced Its Bitcoin Price Forecast to $112,000 — Are Regulatory Actions from Washington Threatening the Bull Market?

Citigroup has recently revised its 12-month Bitcoin price target, reducing it from $143,000 to $112,000.

Strategist Alex Saunders highlights a significant issue: the regulatory developments that the markets anticipated following the election are lagging behind. The legislative opportunity to stimulate the next wave of ETF-driven demand is closing more rapidly than previously anticipated.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating below $90,000. While the six-figure target remains viable, the trajectory toward it has become considerably less steep.

Key Takeaways:

• Citigroup has decreased its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000, and its Ethereum target to $3,175 from $4,304.
• Analysts point to a diminishing timeframe for U.S. crypto legislation in 2025 as the main factor behind lowered forecasts for institutional adoption.
• The updated outlook indicates that the regulatory catalysts necessary for new ETF inflows may not emerge until late 2026.

Citigroup Adjusts Targets Amid Legislative Delays

This adjustment reflects a noticeable decline in the post-election Trump trade enthusiasm that had energized Wall Street late last year.

Citigroup has also reduced its Ethereum target, lowering it from $4,304 to $3,175. The second-largest asset is similarly affected by the regulatory slowdown.

Bitcoin 12-Month Forecast Cut to $112,000 by Citigroup, Down From $143,000

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 17, 2026

Saunders stated clearly that the opportunity for U.S. crypto legislation this year is diminishing. In the absence of definitive frameworks regarding market structure and stablecoins, the institutional capital markets anticipated to enter during Q1 remain on the sidelines.

For reference, Citi’s bullish scenario had previously projected targets as high as $189,000, contingent on swift policy changes that have not yet occurred.

Market Context: Do Flows Support the Adjustment?

Citi is exercising caution. BlackRock has recently acquired $600 million in BTC nonetheless.

This discrepancy illustrates the situation well. While the bank is concerned about regulatory timelines, the largest asset managers are concentrating on long-term supply limitations and viewing current prices as a buying opportunity.

According to Santiment, large Bitcoin wallets have resumed accumulation, absorbing selling pressure from short-term holders. This trend typically precedes price growth. However, without the legislative approval that Citi is awaiting, such growth is likely to be delayed until 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC)24h7d30d1yAll time

Bull case: reclaiming $92,000 on high volume would invalidate the bearish thesis and open the path to $112,000. This requires ETF inflows to reverse and ideally a dovish signal from the Fed.

Bear case: falling below $84,000 brings $72,000 to $70,000 into consideration. Congressional gridlock reinforces the narrative drought, leading prices toward lower liquidity zones. Citi’s own bearish target is set at $78,500.

The critical figure to monitor is ETF flow data. If inflows remain stagnant, $112,000 appears overly optimistic. However, if billion-dollar inflow weeks return, the previous target of $143,000 could be back in play.

At this moment, the market is awaiting a decision from Washington regarding which scenario it will present to the crypto sector.

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