Bloomberg Analysts Caution That Bitcoin’s Decline Under $86K May Be Only the Start

Bitcoin’s recent decline beneath $86,000 has prompted new alerts from Bloomberg Intelligence, with senior commodity analyst Mike McGlone warning that the 7% decrease represents merely the initial phase of a more extensive bear market correction.

This grim prediction arises as cryptocurrency markets experience their most significant monthly downturn since February, with exchange volumes plummeting to $1.59 trillion and bitcoin ETFs suffering $3.48 billion in net outflows throughout November alone.

McGlone anticipates that Bitcoin could fall by over 35% from its current position, potentially revisiting the $50,000 mark last observed in 2024.

His assessment points to typical market reversion, record-high gold prices, low stock market volatility, and the unlimited availability of rival cryptocurrencies as critical elements underpinning this pessimistic view.

Source: LinkedIn

Yen Carry Trade Unwind Could See Bitcoin Drop Below $75k

The immediate trigger for Bitcoin’s bearish market dynamics originated in Tokyo, where increasing speculation regarding a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan has affected leveraged positions.

Polymarket participants currently assign a 52% likelihood to a 25-basis-point increase at the BOJ’s December 18-19 meeting, while bond market investors estimate those odds even higher at 76%.

“Bitcoin dropped because BOJ introduced the possibility of a December rate hike,” BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated on Monday, highlighting that a USD/JPY rate between 155 and 160 “indicates a hawkish BOJ.”

$BTC dumped cause BOJ put Dec rate hike in play. USDJPY 155-160 makes BOJ hawkish. pic.twitter.com/lG47l5cbCA

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) December 1, 2025

The relationship is more profound than mere correlation; conservative estimates value the yen carry trade at $3.4 trillion, while more realistic figures approach $20 trillion.

For the past thirty years, global markets have borrowed nearly zero-interest Japanese funds to finance a range of assets from tech stocks to treasuries to Bitcoin itself.

This period concluded last month, leading to a market sell-off.

Traders are now increasingly hesitant to assume directional risk without downside protection, hedging, and clearer insights into macroeconomic liquidity conditions.

Data from Glassnode indicates a substantial overhead supply barrier situated between $93,000 and $99,000, with an additional resistance layer at $101,000 to $105,000.

Source: Glassnode

“Every rebound into this zone encounters selling pressure from trapped buyers,” cautioned Laqira Protocol CEO Sina Osivand.

Meanwhile, the $83,000 to $86,000 range is emerging as the new cost basis for fresh demand; should this level fail to hold, liquidity hunts toward $78,000 to $75,000 become probable.

Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Test $60-65k Support.

“Bitcoin’s decline below $90,000 is the outcome of a clash between the fragile market structure and weak liquidity conditions observed over the weekend,” VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani informed Cryptonews.

MSCI’s expected decision to potentially exclude companies with over half their assets in cryptocurrency has also heightened selling pressure.

This rule change would impact issuers collectively holding more than $137 billion in digital assets and around 5% of all Bitcoin in existence, including Strategy, Marathon, Riot, Metaplanet, and American Bitcoin.

“Since index funds must adhere to a strict basket-forming methodology, any rule modification automatically triggers a review of their holdings, potentially resulting in forced sell-offs,” Farzam Ehsani added.

December sentiment and the dynamics of the crypto market as it approaches the New Year will partly hinge on whether Michael Saylor’s company reaches an agreement with regulators and index firms.

Strategy executives appear frustrated that their company hasn’t been chosen to join America’s flagship S&P 500#Bitcoin #MichaelSaylorhttps://t.co/RRkYgzJC0N

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 30, 2025

Traders on Kalshi have reduced the odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 this year to just 29%.

Source: Kalshi

Ehsani warned that if the market continues to decline, Bitcoin could test the $60,000 to $65,000 range, although he noted that significant institutional players might perceive those levels as opportunities for accumulation.

“Strategy is a key player in the crypto market, and its potential issues could lead to Bitcoin’s price dropping by another 30%,” he added.

The December 18 BOJ policy decision now represents a critical turning point; a hike with a hawkish stance could drive Bitcoin toward $75,000, while a pause might trigger a short squeeze back toward $100,000 within days.

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