Bitwise CIO States “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Has Ended”—Is a Consistent, Record-Setting Surge Ahead?

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan suggests that the historically recognized four-year crypto cycle may no longer be relevant to the current market dynamics.

In a recent conversation with Bitcoin supporter Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Hougan contended that the established pattern is deteriorating, indicating that a prolonged and more stable growth phase might be forthcoming.

Historically, cryptocurrency markets have adhered to a four-year cycle influenced by Bitcoin’s halving events, fluctuating interest rates, and the periodic crises that have unsettled the sector. However, Hougan posits that these factors are now diminishing in their impact.

Matt Hougan Anticipates ‘Sustained Boom’ for Crypto as Traditional Cycles Diminish

In a subsequent post on X, Hougan highlighted the waning significance of the Bitcoin halving, observing that each occurrence has half the impact of its predecessor. “The halving is half as important every four years,” he remarked.

Why is the four-year cycle obsolete?
1) The factors that have historically generated four-year cycles are weakening:
i) The halving is half as important every four years;
ii) The interest rate cycle is favorable for crypto, not detrimental (as it was in 2018 and 2022);
iii) Blow-up risk is… https://t.co/F9ybjHEeB5

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025

The reasoning is straightforward: as block rewards decrease in absolute terms, their influence on the overall market supply diminishes relative to the expanding scale of the crypto economy. Consequently, halvings no longer act as the primary catalyst for bullish market trends.

He also pointed out that interest rate cycles, which previously posed significant challenges for crypto during downturns like those in 2018 and 2022, are now functioning as supportive factors, aided by a more stable and accommodating macroeconomic environment.

Hougan further stressed that the risk of market collapses, which once dictated cycles in the crypto landscape, has significantly lessened due to advancements in regulation and increasing institutional participation.

In lieu of the traditional cycle, Hougan perceives new influences emerging, which operate on extended timelines and are not linked to halving years.

Foremost among these is the rising influx of capital into crypto-related ETFs. This trend, which commenced in 2024, is just beginning, he noted, and could persist for five to ten years.

Institutional adoption represents another significant trend. Hougan indicated that pensions, endowments, and national account platforms are only beginning to explore crypto exposure. He anticipates that this trend will accelerate as more crypto ETFs receive approval.

He also referenced advancements in the regulatory landscape. In his opinion, January 2025 marked the onset of a new era of policymaking for the sector. Hougan pointed to the recent passage of the GENIUS Act as a pivotal change.

As the GENIUS Act is enacted, regulatory frameworks stabilize across jurisdictions, allowing digital assets to establish a more solid foundation for long-term planning.#genius #stablecoinhttps://t.co/Hdq2wceITt

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) July 18, 2025

This legislation has paved the way for Wall Street to start developing financial products centered around crypto, he stated, forecasting that banks will allocate billions in the coming years.

In his post, Hougan mentioned that new trends, such as the emergence of crypto treasury firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, are creating a different kind of cycle. He believes these new patterns will not replicate the sharp booms and busts of the past.

“I think it’s more of a sustained steady boom than a supercycle,” Hougan expressed. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will surpass the traditional four-year cycle forces.”

Looking forward, he anticipates that 2026 will be a robust year for crypto, although he cautioned that volatility is still likely.

Bitwise CIO Envisions Bitcoin on Path to $1M Amid Policy Changes and Increasing Institutional Support

This is not the first occasion Hougan has asserted that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of institutional adoption, characterized by significant shifts in finance and policy.

On December 13, 2024, Hougan highlighted several key developments indicating this transition: BlackRock’s proposed 2% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, the swift adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and increasing public endorsement from financial figures like Ray Dalio.

He also remarked on the growing political acceptance of crypto, citing President Donald Trump’s vocal support for Bitcoin and his participation in a major industry event.

Fast forward to this year, Hougan projected that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by demand from sovereign wealth funds, public companies, and institutional investors.

Despite the controversy surrounding Trump’s proposed US crypto reserve allocation, Bitwise CEO @Matt_Hougan believes the “market has this wrong.”#Altcoin #DonaldTrump #Cryptohttps://t.co/rW2zJpsVaC

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) March 5, 2025

“The final barrier fell when governments became holders,” he stated. “Bitcoin’s survival was no longer in question; growth became the priority.”

Hougan asserts that Bitcoin is now in a new phase, characterized by less speculation and more institutional and structural involvement.

The post Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”—Is a Steady, Record-Breaking Boom Next? appeared first on Cryptonews.